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Baumol's Cost Disease(en.wikipedia.org)
67 points by drra 11 hours ago | 76 comments
dang 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Related. Others?

The Baumol Effect and Jevons paradox are related - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45955879 - Nov 2025 (67 comments)

Baumol Effect - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43065115 - Feb 2025 (1 comment)

The Baumol effect - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35220758 - March 2023 (77 comments)

Baumol Effect - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24812620 - Oct 2020 (99 comments)

Baumol Effect - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20443675 - July 2019 (62 comments)

William Baumol, author of 'cost disease' theory, has died - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14284466 - May 2017 (33 comments)

Baumol's Cost Disease - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12679629 - Oct 2016 (1 comment)

Is productivity the victim of its own success? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11964673 - June 2016 (57 comments)

Baumol's Cost Disease: Why Artists are Always Poor - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=972082 - Dec 2009 (14 comments)

duxup 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

In a way, I thought about this when I changed my career the last time.

I had worked in what I will call "high end" tech support for some proprietary (and some less proprietary) networking equipment.

My job generally paid great and customers paid big support contracts, good deal for a good 20 years. But Tech Support is never glamorous, executives eventually think of them as just problems (even if they're solving problems) because that's all they hear. Quality management jumps to other more glamours departments and so on.

I was not so sad when a layoff occurred (company sold for parts and most of support was cut because more people on balance sheet looks costy). eventually and I learned to code late in life and got a new job / career.

Amusingly while I was learning to code a former coworker. (one of the people developing the products) at a company who bought some of the products I supported for a good 20 years reached out and said I should apply for a remote support job. I wasn't enthused but I did thinking they might make a good offer ... I never heard anything back. I was maybe one of 100 people who worked on those products in that capacity, I could have gone to work and done the job fabulously in an instant. Former coworker asked around was told "he doesn't have masters degree in CS". I wonder how those CS masters guys cost?

I got a lot of stories from that coworker how support was a complete disaster for a long long time at that company.

People rightfully complain about tech support, and I always think "Yeah they're bad because anyone who knows how to do it ... does not stick around."

yobbo 33 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It seems relevant that the categories healthcare, housing, and higher education are not paid by wages/cash but rather through various means of financing (in the form of insurance for healthcare). (In addition to not being outsourcable).

New cars not increasing looks strange but that might be a US phenomena, where most cars might be imported and the median car have "shrunk" in size over the period.

derf_ 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The submission is titled with "Cost Disease", though the Wikipedia article has the more neutral term "Effect". But it is important to remember that money is a relative resource, not a real resource. If some sectors of the economy become drastically more efficient, and some do not, overall society has become wealthier, even if the prices in the latter sectors rise a lot.

BurningFrog 5 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> money is a relative resource

I think this is the better way to think of money and wealth:

Money is the unit of measure for wealth. It's not in itself wealth.

bigbadfeline 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> If some sectors of the economy become drastically more efficient... overall society has become wealthier

That's a weird one - what's your metric for the "wealth of overall society"? Stock market indexes can't be it because those are subject to extreme levels of unreported inflation and gaming.

How can you measure something that is subject to extreme inflation when that inflation is not only unmeasured but not even acknowledged as a phenomenon?

At present, the "wealth of overall society" is a unicorn metric as opposed to the perfectly measurable and extreme levels of income and wealth inequality. In other words, the overall losses from skewed distribution dwarf the gains from higher efficiencies.

michaelt 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If the orchestra performs less often because the violists have better paying jobs in a factory making the latest and greatest TVs, more homes will have the latest and greatest TVs.

Of course, this relies on the assumption most work - and hence most productivity - is a net social good. If the violinists have instead got jobs operating an orphan-crushing machine, that would be a bad thing. But hopefully your society is structured in such a way that the average worker is contributing to the prosperity of their local community.

tomrod an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

GDP produced divided by costs required measures intensity. These will be typically normalized (inflation removed) or, if a ratio, can be nominal since both have the inflation ratioed out.

GDP is known to be an imperfect measure, especially for capturing cottage industry and due to the distribution effect you described, but it's not horrible to start with.

BurningFrog 9 minutes ago | parent [-]

GDP is how much wealth is produced in society at a moment in time.

The total accumulated wealth in a society is a related but entirely different number.

bloppe an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

The main metrics are mean and median real income (i.e. inflation-adjusted). Baumol's only occurs if mean real income rises. Unless inequality rises simultaneously, then median real income (the metric most people care about) will rise as well.

jgalt212 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If people are under or unemployed, do they now value leisure time higher? It's a slippery slope. You have to fix some things.

wat10000 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Your conclusion falls victim to the same conflation you’re calling out. If some sectors become drastically more efficient, society has become wealthier in terms of money, but not necessarily in terms of real resources.

For example, consider a case where finance becomes much more productive (in terms of $ per employee-hour) and raises wages to attract smart people, leading to fewer people becoming doctors because finance is much more attractive. Is society wealthier? The money says yes. The line goes up. But finance doesn’t set a broken bone or treat cancer. This may well have made society less wealthy in terms of what ordinary people actually care about.

AnimalMuppet 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Finance funds hospitals and cancer research institutes - or at least, it enables the gathering and concentrating of resources to do so.

Now, advertising...

rwmj 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Some finance is needed and beneficial. The ability to form corporations and raise money through the stock market enhances many other fields of endeavour.

But this can go too far. In London during 2000-2008, finance consumed every spare IT worker, as well as mathematicians and physicists. Salaries were far higher working for a bank than working in any other IT-related industry or start-up. Did this produce great works? Is London now better off because of this? In a word, no.

jimbokun 40 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

What’s your basis for concluding “no”?

London is a very desirable place to live.

nospice 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The problem I have with these arguments is that they're awfully close to the anti-tourism arguments you hear in tourist towns such as Tahoe. You have this influx of visitors and money, and there's a considerable number of residents who see it as uniformly negative: congestion, high property prices, and so on. Imagine what it could've been without all these rich tech bros!

But then, the US is full of picturesque small towns where the original heavy industry (logging, copper mine, steel mill) disappeared and tourism did not fill the gap. And all the young people moved out in search of better opportunities, except for the ones addicted to meth. There's no money, no jobs, no hope.

Every socioeconomic shift has downsides, but it doesn't automatically mean that the alternative is better. Broad economic gains tend to lift all boats because money changes hands.

wat10000 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It also doesn’t mean the alternative is worse. Nothing says such a shift had to be overall good.

rwmj 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

In the case of London, it was misallocation, not an influx of anything. It would have been better if the programmers had been founding start up companies, and the physicists had been researching science, instead of working for banks.

yunyu 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Advertising enables innovation-producing firms to drive awareness of their services in a cost effective manner, and for less informed consumers to understand what is available on the market. Your typical physician might not be fully caught up on what is the state of the art in arthritis treatments, but advertising enables this to happen.

ben_w 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> in a cost effective manner

Facebook is currently showing me these ads:

Lady's earrings (see my name), Pixel 10 (I'm theoretically an iPhone developer), cat food (I don't own any pet let alone a cat), special offers from a supermarket I would have been shopping at anyway even if they had not told me about the offers, a sponsored government message because apparently the Bundesministerium für Gesundheit don't have a better method of contacting German residents than by buying ads from a US social network (I have previously seen such from the British government telling me that some breed of dog was now banned even though I don't own a dog and also live in Germany)…

… but none of that's what's importantly wrong.

Cost effective? It's an auction, each ad in isolation may be fair (but there's reason even then to be suspicious), but in aggregate the ad sector is an all-pay auction.

There's a massive over-supply of solutions because all the startups chase the same ideas at about the same times, and the only one of them to get big is the one that pays enough to the gatekeepers of eyeballs to win the all-pay auction bidding for mindshare.

If everyone stopped advertising, the knowledge of solutions would still diffuse, the winner would be so by word of mouth. The difference is that the 1200 "trusted partners" on all the GDPR popups wouldn't collect rent on advising people on the best strategy for selling their user's privacy and battery life and mobile data allowance for money that those users never get to see, and the people buying those eyeballs wouldn't be wasting their VC runway making something other than the product.

yunyu 4 hours ago | parent [-]

The fact that your Facebook ads are worse is probably because you're in the EU. I'm in the US, and I am getting fairly relevant ads for Broadway shows, data infrastructure products, discounted hotel packages, and climbing gym subscriptions - things that I am actually considering purchasing. And we haven't even brought up intent-based ads (Google search).

Word of mouth benefits incumbents. Advertising at least enables newcomers to temporarily burn money to gain mindshare, while “slow diffusion” will lock society into a “nobody ever got fired for buying IBM” state forever.

wat10000 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The only way this should happen is if it’s a fake arthritis treatment meant to detect doctors who learn about treatments from advertising instead of legitimate sources, so they can be prevented from practicing medicine.

yunyu 6 hours ago | parent [-]

What are legitimate sources in your definition? Should physicians be expected to spend all their free time reading every single study in every medical journal or conference, even for niche areas that they don't usually encounter? Should the average diabetic/arthritic patient need to obsessively pore over academic reports to stay informed about their condition? Should advertisers be banned from sponsoring journals or conferences? This is an extremely ill informed line of reasoning.

michaelt 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Doctors should learn about new drugs the traditional way - physically attractive drug company reps taking them out for expensive dinners and gifting them branded golf equipment.

yunyu an hour ago | parent [-]

My favorite form of definitely-not-advertising :)

wat10000 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I don’t know what counts as legitimate sources. I’ll let the professionals figure that one out.

> Should advertisers be banned from sponsoring journals or conferences?

It baffles me that you apparently think this is some kind of zinger. Yes!

ghaff 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Journals less commonly but pretty much every conference out there of any scope is sponsored by companies. In fact, absent sponsors, very few conferences would exist other than small volunteer-run ones.

wat10000 2 hours ago | parent [-]

If attendees aren’t willing to pay the full cost then maybe the conference isn’t providing enough value and we’re better off without it.

ghaff 2 hours ago | parent [-]

People (and their companies in many cases) have limited budgets. I do pay out of my pocket for some conferences, and conference organizers and (previously) employers in other cases. You're probably not going to convince me that I'm better off sitting at a desk than getting out and collaborating with people at an event from time to time. For that matter, why should companies sponsor open source projects? If they're that valuable, individuals should just pay for them I guess.

wat10000 an hour ago | parent [-]

And you’re not going to convince me that collaboration is so valuable that it’s worth corrupting the whole medical establishment, and simultaneously not valuable enough for you to pay what it costs to do it.

ghaff an hour ago | parent [-]

I have nothing to do with the medical establishment. I do know that the conferences I do attend are subsidized by companies in the tech space in various ways. You're welcome to bemoan that of course although I'm pretty sure neither of us are in a position to overturn decades-long (at least) practice.

yunyu 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Got it. So you want attention to be controlled by the whims of academic/government/publishing bureaucrats or black-box ranking algorithms who are the arbitrators of legitimacy. I can't say I agree with that opinion, but different strokes for different folks.

wat10000 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I’m very confused. Why would “black-box ranking algorithms” be on the no advertising side?

Medicine has a pretty good system for getting knowledge out to doctors as far as I can tell. I fail to see how advertising contributes to this in any way. Banning advertising is the opposite of controlling attention.

I’d like a total ban on all advertising, but I at least see some merits in the discovery argument for consumer goods even if I don’t agree with it. But saying advertisement is necessary so doctors can find out about new treatments? I hope this is just subtle satire, because, what?

yunyu 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> Medicine has a pretty good system for getting knowledge out to doctors as far as I can tell.

Yes, it does - it’s called advertising. In the US, the average promotional spend per physician exceeds $20k/yr. As a result, a lot more patients are able to quickly benefit from new medications like Dupixent or Ozempic as a result of wider awareness.

Suppose we banned Google ads and you are searching for a plumber. You are now entirely at the whims of whoever designs the ranking algorithm on Google/the Yellow Pages, who has nothing at stake here. Meanwhile, advertisers have to bid for your attention - making them at least somewhat aligned with your buying intent.

The same applies for doctors searching for state of the art diabetes treatments. It’s hard to say that relying on a fuzzy notion of “legitimacy” (or entrenched status-quo cliques) is a more fair system.

wat10000 an hour ago | parent [-]

Your hypothetical is the world I actually live in, except I have to scroll past the ads first. It’s amazing that you’re so invested in advertising as a concept that you’d think a guy who keeps ranting about banning advertising would ever select a plumber from an ad.

The only purpose Google ads serve to me is to take up space and waste my time locating where the ads end and the real results begin.

Otherwise, they’re at best useless. Being able to distinguish the ads from the real results is an important online safety skill these days to avoid getting ripped off or outright scammed. They’re no longer merely parasitic, but are now actually dangerous.

If your argument is that advertising medical treatments to doctors is just like the mundane advertising I see on Google, you’re doing an excellent job of making my case for me.

yunyu an hour ago | parent [-]

Your value to advertisers is probably less than 1% of that of a single doctor or corporate VP. It makes sense that your queries are lower intent - this is hardly contradictory. Fortunately, you are an edge case wrt how firms are actually spending their money, so we’ll leave it at that.

wat10000 an hour ago | parent [-]

If you want to argue that advertising is different for doctors than it is for me, and it’s useful for them despite being a drain and a danger for me, then go for it. But that’s the opposite of the argument you laid out.

yunyu an hour ago | parent [-]

Yes, advertising is more relevant and works better for people with power over large purchasing decisions as the bidders have more at stake. Maybe you aren't in the market for plumbers or running shoes, and are instead looking for "download vlc media player". This doesn't contradict anything I said?

adam_patarino 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I can’t help but notice the items of increasing price / cost are not optional / discretionary purchases. Price can increase and not affect demand. Whereas the items decreasing in price are all subject intense competition and price sensitivity.

hibikir 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That's not how it works: Most things that people call non-discretionary still have opportunities for market effects. Take food: You might have spikes for, say, beef, but what is necessary is just enough calories, not necessarily having them come from beef. Therefore, you can switch preferences, eat something else, and not be affected by the price increases. Poeple rarely do though, because the amount of money spent on food is significantly lower than historical, precisely due to agricultural productivity improvements. In the US, we also have to consider the effects of recent tariffs: When supply gets far more expensive, prices go up in a market, regardless of whether people must eat or not.

For housing, there's also significant location effects: One doesn't have to live in, say, Manhattan. People trade time for location, and then select the space they want. A whole lot of the space Americans use is completely optional. Go look at cities in Asia, or in Spain: You can have a city with an average density similar to NYC's Upper East side, but not even NYC comes close. That's not about a limitation of supply, but very specific policy choices.

It's similar in other mandatory things: In healthcare, the amount of things that are actually mandatory isn't that large, training to become a doctor is offered to far fewer people that would want the job, drugs can be handed long monopolies... It's not about non-discretionary, but mostly a regulatory problem. Same with American colleges, which waste an order of magnitude more money in what is shaped like an old luxury good. Anyone that has gone to a public university in continental Europe and to a US college can tell you it's a completely different good, and the American approach isn't all that focused on efficient education, as it's still shaped like a finishing school. And again, it's not necessary.

So I'd argue it's almost always regulation written to help certain incumbents, instead of inability of market forces to keep prices low even when it appears that a good is non-discretionary.

adam_patarino 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah you’re right, that’s fair. I just think people don’t behave that rationally. I’m not moving away from my kid’s grandparents because my local costs have gone up, for example.

There exists greater friction with many of the items in red than the highly automated ones.

My question is how linked is this friction to the lack of automation?

With text books and meat packing there are few players due to consolidation. This means they can avoid investing in automation and keep prices high because they face less resistance from consumers and virtually none from competitors.

In short I’m asking if market forces are to blame for lower automation. And therefore automation is not the root cause of price increases.

zeroonetwothree 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

At some price level you would move. Of course there are probably many more people that would move before you so that situation may not arise in practice. Economics works on the margin.

adam_patarino 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Sure but there’s a significant change in price that I can withstand before moving. My point is there’s less price sensitivity for some of these items. And because of that I wonder if that affects the amount of automation suppliers invest in.

jdasdf 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>I’m not moving away from my kid’s grandparents because my local costs have gone up, for example.

If you're unable to eat because you spent all your resources paying for that residence near the grandparents you would certainly move.

kmeisthax 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

College is optional. Actually, if you're just looking for "a skilled job" trade school is a better bet than college now. But the only people actually saying that are conservative nut-jobs trying to fight a culture war against a balanced education. People send their kids to colleges for the same reason why they demand more car lanes instead of better buses and trains: it's a status symbol.

The thing about status symbols is that you are buying them to feel better than someone else. So they almost have to be scarce - and therefore expensive. That's the basic idea behind cost disease; scarce things in an economy of abundance become more expensive, not less.

adam_patarino 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Perhaps it is optional for some. The point isn’t if it’s technically required. It’s that these items have less price sensitivity, which could be a greater factor in what industries invest in automation.

SubmarineClub 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Actually, if you're just looking for "a skilled job" trade school is a better bet than college now.

Better for whom? And better in what sense?

Long-term, on average, post-college careers still blow the trades out of the water in earnings.

In my case certainly, if I had bought into the “trades are better!!” online rhetoric I would be making far less money than I am now, and I get to work remote.

kmeisthax 6 hours ago | parent [-]

> Long-term, on average, post-college careers still blow the trades out of the water in earnings.

That average has a lot of outliers. There are a handful of degrees which almost guarantee you gainful employment. Like, someone getting a law degree or prepping for hospital residency will make waaay more money than maths, liberal arts, or anything on PhD track. The latter do not have anywhere close to the same job prospects.

Furthermore, some degrees are extremely expensive to get. My guess is you got an engineering or CS degree, which in terms of "degrees with job prospects" are still reasonably priced. You can graduate and go into the work force with little debt (or at least, I did, YMMV). Less so for the lawyers and doctors pushing up the college average, who have to go to more expensive schools and even more expensive post-graduate programs. They rack up lots of student debt in the process. Even if it gives you a higher salary, you might not be comfortable with a decade and change of debt slavery.

ghaff 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Law in the US is actually not that great an overall profession in terms of compensation if you're not talking top schools, white shoe firms, and a prestigious clerkship.

websiteapi 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm skeptical that anything actually is cheaper when normalized by offset wages. like sure you can buy a TV for cheaper, but isn't that just because now you have cheap labor and arbitrage? software is the main exception here. what physical product is actually cheaper when you remove offset labor arbitrage?

this would also explain why things that are not subject to said arbitrage do not actually get cheaper, e.g. anything that must be done locally.

Dr_Birdbrain 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Don’t automation technologies improve the productivity of labor?

If I can make one widget per hour, and some new tool lets me make 10 widgets per hour?

Conventional economic theory suggests the gain will be split between the widget-maker and the widget-consumer, in proportions determined by the relative slopes of the supply-demand curves, but definitely the product will become somewhat cheaper.

websiteapi 8 hours ago | parent [-]

sure, but take furniture - is high quality furniture cheaper today than 50 years ago, normalized by inflation? from my investigation the answer is no.

randallsquared 8 hours ago | parent [-]

It depends on what you mean by "high quality", I suspect. Above a relatively low floor, price of furniture seems unrelated to (e.g.) sturdiness or expected lifespan. It's more like fashion, in that you are paying for names or decoration.

ghaff an hour ago | parent [-]

Probably a difficult question to answer. My sense is that high quality new hardwood furniture hasn't gotten especially more expensive over recent time (adjusted for inflation) but you'd probably have to ask someone in the industry who is more plugged into various cost inputs.

>seems unrelated to (e.g.) sturdiness or expected lifespan

I'll disagree somewhat. At least in New England, there are smallish manufacturers who make high quality products that you're not going to find in most, if any, of the large retailers.

Mistletoe 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Computer software is on the chart as getting cheaper with time but that can’t be right? I remember Photoshop used to be a disc and you owned it for a reasonable price and now you subscribe to the Adobe protection racket. Software as a service would be a service which should go in the top of the graph with other extortionists like colleges and hospitals.

kgwgk 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The reasonable price was $600 in 2000 which is over $1000 adjusted for inflation. That's four years of subscription, the useful life of a perpetual license may not be much more than that.

Mistletoe 7 hours ago | parent [-]

No I pretty much still just need Photoshop features from 2000, 25 years later. That’s $24 a year instead of the current price of almost $24 a month.

steveBK123 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Your perpetual license on a fixed version of Photoshop would not have been transferrable across OS/compute generations for 25 years.

In practice most longtime Photoshop users paid the $600 once and some $200~ upgrade cost every 2-4 years. Adjusted for inflation its same or more than what you pay now.

If you think you'd be fine now with 25 year old Photoshop features you maybe forget how basic the product was compared to today. Further besides OS compatibility there were file format / camera raw version additions made over time that you'd have wanted.

ghaff 2 hours ago | parent [-]

And there are both cheaper proprietary programs and even free open source programs if they care that much. There are a lot of way cheaper software options, especially on the desktop, in many cases than there were 25 years ago.

kgwgk 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Are you also happy running Windows XP or Mac OS X 10.1 (Puma) which seem to be the last versions officially supported? (I guess on Windows it may have worked in some form or another longer than that but surely it doesn't work anymore on Windows 11 which is the only version currently supported.)

tikhonj 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If that's all you need, there are free alternatives that should be more than sufficient today.

paulpauper 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

aren't there open source programs that have caught up to early 2000s era photoshop?

steveBK123 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

A great secondary point, yes. If you truly believe year 2000 Photoshop was good enough for life, there are plenty of cheap/free options out there today.

Arguably your base desktop/tablet/phone OS editor which is free may already do enough.

esafak 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

https://www.canva.com/newsroom/news/all-new-affinity/

zeroonetwothree 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Well there are other examples, eg Google Docs is free, no need to pay for Office.

I don’t know about the aggregate data tbf

seizethecheese 41 minutes ago | parent [-]

This is what came to mind for me. Certainly there are free versions of everything that used to cost money a decade or two ago. The paid software now is much more advanced.

CPLX 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

1. This is certainly a real effect that has some effect on relative wages at the margins in some cases.

2. In 2025 if you hear someone talking about it in the context of the US economy you are most likely hearing propaganda, designed to provide a dodge for the real driver of higher costs which is mostly concentrated corporate power, consolidation, and collusion.

nostrademons 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Evidence for claim #2? The sectors where the Baumol effect has been most painful (housing, childcare, education, with the exception of healthcare) are ones that have much higher levels of competition and distribution than areas where prices have rapidly dropped. Construction Physics, for example, did an analysis [1] that showed that the top multifamily housing developer has 2% marketshare; the top residential housing developer (DR Horton) has 8.4% and subs out almost all the work, and the top 4 together have only 20% of the market. Compare with tech markets like browsers, search engines, or operating systems where the top firm alone often has 80% market share.

[1] https://www.construction-physics.com/p/why-are-there-so-few-...

steveBK123 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

My mental model for high/low inflation goods/services are really just what % of their cost is driven by local on-shore labor which isn't / can't be automated to be more efficient. The "can't" is sometimes regulatory or cultural.

So for example childcare & education both fall into high inflation because we almost demand that it be inefficient. Customers demand to know the worker:customer ratios, and expect them to be low. It's held up by universities as a measure of quality!

Similarly with medical care, you don't see a lot of efficiency-increasing changes over time. The process of going to the doctor when you are sick, getting a prescription, and picking it up at the pharmacy is about 90% the same as it was in the 1980s. Maybe Amazon's efforts with telehealth&pharmacy can help here, tbd.

Housing is partially land use / zoning, increased regulatory burdens with time on multi-family housing, and that home construction itself is still something of an artisan craft than an industrial automated process.

drewmate 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I'm not sure what the answer is for housing, but there are tons of factors that go in to the growth of cost there. For one, the people making the buying decision aren't comparing DR Horton to Lennar. Usually, they're thinking along two lines: monthly mortgage cost and location.

Still, that doesn't rule out other types of consolidation (that are not necessarily corporate in nature.) There are no new "cities" being built, and even if you want to live in a small suburban community, chances are that you want or need to live near a city for economic reasons. I bet a lot of people on this forum wouldn't even consider living outside of 15-mile radius of SFO or NYC.

For individual families, the choices are often even more constrained. Assuming a dual income household, it's unlikely both earners will be able to geographically relocate at the same time. So you end up with situations where new housing outside of economic centers is pointless to build, and new housing in economic centers is expensive or impossible to build due to regulations and existing suburban street layouts.

Bringing it back to Baumol, we can think of an invisible "land value tax" as rising much like a wage rises without an increase in productivity. Since we're not making new economically productive regions, the cost of living near one of the existing ones has to rise (and we're not doing anything to counteract those trends.)

wat10000 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Housing is all messed up because land is a limited resource and regulation artificially limits it even further.

I live in a high demand area. A perfectly cromulent house on a particularly good lot will sell for $1.5 million as a teardown. The new house will be 6,000+ sqft and be inhabited by a family of four. Builders won’t build smaller because the land price sets a hard floor. The most profitable and economically productive thing would be to split the lot and build several smaller houses, or build a small apartment building, housing several times more people for the same cost. But this isn’t legal. Construction costs don’t make a difference. If construction costs doubled, the new houses would just get smaller. Some of these teardowns would stop being torn down. The cost of living in the area would stay about the same.

ungreased0675 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I’d speculate that the cause of higher costs is excess government spending over the past few years, creating a lot more dollars chasing fewer resources.

cjbarber 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

One implication of this is that we need regulatory improvements (ie improvement via negativa, less) for healthcare, childcare, education, and building new housing. It’s non-ideal when government policies restrict supply and restrict competition, and entrench existing players.

bilsbie 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Here’s a second source: https://grokipedia.com/page/Baumol_effect

noitpmeder 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

At least the URL immediately calls out the fact the site is nothing but AI spew.

witte 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Technically not a source, and even less so than wikipedia.