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BigTTYGothGF 3 days ago

> But the world has moved on.

China's got 27 reactors under construction right now: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China

ViewTrick1002 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

China has been scaling back and delaying their nuclear program in favor of renewables since Fukushima.

At saturation, given current nuclear build out based on actual construction starts and China’s grid size, China will end up with 2-3% nuclear power in the grid mix.

Enough to sustain a civilian industry to complement any military ambitions, but it does not move the needle.

In terms of electricity China is all in on renewables and storage with a backstop of locally sourced firming coal.

mpweiher 3 days ago | parent [-]

> China has been scaling back and delaying their nuclear program in favor of renewables since Fukushima.

Not "has". "Had". The whole world held their breath after Fukushima.

Now that everybody knows that nothing really consequential happened apart from state overreaction, Japan, China and the rest of the world are no longer holding their breath.

China has been approving 10 or more nuclear power plants per year the last couple of years. Given the lifetime of 80 years of modern nuclear reactors and Little's Law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little%27s_law) that implies an expected fleet size of 800 reactors. At 1.2 - 1.4GW per reactors, that would be slightly above 1 TW of generating capacity, which is enough for 90% of current Chinese electricity production.

DarkNova6 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You are naturally correct and I have corrected my statement. I intended to refer to the West but my wording was factually incorrect.

China has invested so much for so long into nuclear technology that they now have the industry which Europe once had. And to rebuild the same type of industry would take the same amount of effort that China had to do. Meanwhile, the US can't even build their own warships anymore.

bigbadfeline 3 days ago | parent [-]

> China has invested so much for so long into nuclear technology... And to rebuild the same type of industry in the EU would take the same amount of effort.

You're factually wrong.

China started from 0 but the EU has kept building reactors, the French Areva/EDF finished three advanced 1600 MW reactors just 6 and 2 years ago. They are also building two reactors of the same type in the UK as we speak. The EU has never lost the expertise necessary for building nuclear reactors, they have actually advanced the state of the art since the end of the initial European wave.

Don't be confused by the lack of finished reactors in the EU, 2 of the completed Areva plants are in China and were built for a third of the time and cost of the same type reactors currently under construction in the UK. Therefore:

1. Looking at completed reactors in the EU cannot be used for judging the level of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) expertise in the EU.

2. Cost overruns in Europe are due to politics and civil engineering chaos there while the EU's NPP expertise is the best in the world.

3. Technology-wise, a new EU buldout of NPPs won't start from zero but from the the very top of the NPP technology ladder.

derriz 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

In the first 5 months of this year, China added 198 GW of solar PV and 46 GW of wind. Nuclear is a small side-hustle for them.

StopDisinfo910 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

China strategy is clearly a mix of renewable and nuclear, renewable for bulk and nuclear for baseload.

At the moment, they are quickly building gaz-fired capacity to supplement the renewable during peak demand and when production is low. Their base load is mostly coal. Nuclear will allow them to phase out most of that. They are clearly targeting zero coal and are gaz poor anyway so nuclear allows them to limit their exposure to imports. That's basically France strategy in the 70s except France went all in while China can use renewable for bulk capacity as they produce a ton of the required mineral themselves

The opposition between intermittent and nuclear doesn't exist. Nobody knows how to run a grid purely on intermittent sources.

A lot of the discussion on statistics here don't make sense. China wants to switch off coal and gaz. You are looking at transition numbers focusing on current shares when you should be considering trajectories.

pyrale 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

nameplate capacity of different generation sources can't be compared, if only because capacity factor is not comparable.

derriz 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

China's plan is to add 100GW of nuclear by 2040.

In 2024 alone, it added 360GW of wind and solar and the trajectory for renewables is steepening, not declining so this year's number looks like it will exceed this number - 450GW or more.

Capacity factors are just noise when you're dealing with nearly 2 orders of magnitude of difference in scale. Apply whatever adjustment for capacity factor differences that you like but 100GW of nuclear over 15 years is not going to catch up with 450GW of wind and solar per year.

bigbadfeline 3 days ago | parent [-]

China has 1,000 GW installed solar and 26 GW of wind which generate 2k TWh/yr. The total installed nuclear in China is a mere 60 GW which generate 450 TWh/yr. Therefore, the capacity factor of solar is 2 TWh/GW and that of nuclear is 4 times higher at 8 TWh/GW.

Calling an 4 times higher capacity factor "noise" is actual noise.

Besides, nuclear provides uninterrupted energy supply, no need for storage or special convenient places for installation. That's why China is building capacity of both types as fast as they can.

Europe is in a colder geographic area with less sunshine and more needs of energy during the cold/rainy days, nuclear is an absolute necessity there.

ViewTrick1002 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Unless half the fleet is offline like happened in France during the energy crisis and twice in Sweden in the last year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/business/nuclear-power-fr...

> That's why China is building capacity of both types as fast as they can.

Nuclear power as a percentage of the Chinese grid mix is backsliding. Will likely land somewhere in the 2-3% range when their grid is fully built out.

China is building renewables and storage as fast as they can and provide a token investment (in terms of their grid size)for new built nuclear power.

derriz 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

The scales of rollout are so vastly different, it is just noise.

China will add 450GW or more renewables this year alone.

Even after dividing by 4 this represents more additional energy production capacity in ONE year than their 15 year target for nuclear. This is after your capacity factor adjustment.

Nuclear’s contribution to Chinese electricity production at the end of their 2040 nuclear plan is likely to be below 5%. Even less than nuclear’s current global share of about 9% - down from just under 20% in the mid 1990s.

t_tsonev 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

But you can compare generated power, right?

> In the 12 months to June 2025, wind and solar (2,073 TWh) generated more electricity than all other clean sources (nuclear, hydro and bioenergy) combined (1,936 TWh). Just four years ago, wind and solar generated half as much electricity as other clean sources combined.

https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-energy-transi...

bigbadfeline 3 days ago | parent [-]

So, both types generated approximately the same amount of power and it still isn't enough, one type cannot replace the other, they complement each other, that's why China is building more of each type, they know what they're doing.