Is the mechanism of the ban actually going to work, or is it just going to train more kids how to use fake IDs and VPNs?

Not sure it matters.

It's a relatively uncontroversial ban, with public support in Aus because of mental health concerns, and key social media sites complying.

VPN's come with their own minimum age 18 T&C's. As do the credit and debit that are usually required somewhere along the line to pay for the services.

Historically, if it's awkward to circumvent most people tend to comply; which means in turn that minority that can figure out a way around it are unlikely to find many of their friends present. While for majority there's unlikely to be much of a draw or peer group pressure to circumvent.

I'm sure Aus gov will monitor, media will highlight problems etc, but would be surprised if it was not actually quit effective.

It doesn't have to be that effective. The point was to get the law passed. Now that it's in effect, there will be iterative steps to make it effective. I think it will eventually lead to all social media users in Australia having to authenticate with their Digital ID, which will be made available to private sector integrators in the 2nd half of 2026.

It's not ID based so why would they need fake ID?