I dont think this holds up. Define "near each other" in an 80-bit random space. Further, the likelihood of a potential conflict is offset by the fact that you have far fewer "initial random positions" instead of every single element defining its own random position. And the extra random bits (over UUID7) reduce conflict possibilities by orders of magnitude.

I concede I'm no mathematician and I could be wrong here, but your analysis feels similar to assuming 10-11-12-13-14-15 is less likely to be a winning lottery ticket because the odds against consecutive numbers are so massive.

▲

jasonwatkinspdx 3 days ago | parent [-]

No, the calculation is straightforward and I'm not making the fallacious assumption you say there at the end about a magical lottery ticket number.

My basic point is the probability of collision is lower than the birthday bound, there's no need for this, and as comments in this thread make clear people are not understanding this limitation even exists with the specification.

	▲	listenallyall 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		> the calculation is straightforward Ok then, make it easy - your requirement is to independently pick 4 numbers from the range 0 to 9, without resulting in any duplicates. Which is more likely to be successful: - pick 4 random digits independently - pick a random digit, which will be appended by the next digit as pick #2 (i.e. if you pick 5, then 6 will automatically be your second digit, if you pick 9, 0 will be your second digit). Then pick once more on the same terms. The math here is easy: scenario 1 you have 0.9 x 0.8 x 0.7 = 0.504 likelihood of success. Scenario 2 it's simply 0.7.