In 5 years, the dominant form-factor will still be a phone. This is not the risk.

The existential FEAR of the smartphone ecosystem players (Apple, Google) is, that another ecosystem (!) may come along, one that is tighter integrated into the daily lives, is more predictive of the users' needs, requires less interaction and is not under THEIR control.

Because this is not about devices, it's about owning the total userbase of that OS-ecosystem.

Replacing the Smartphone has been attempted numerous times in the past decade, but no device was able to replace it as a consumption device. Now technology has reached a level of maturity that Smart Glasses may have a shot at this. AND they come along with their own ecosystem as well.

Whatever happens, they won't replace all phones within 5 years. But it's possible that such a device would become a companion to an iOS/Android phone and within 5 years gradually eases off users of their phones into that other ecosystem.

And that's scary for Apple and Google.

Because this is not a device-war, this is an ecosystem-war.

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jpace121 3 days ago | parent [-]

How late do you think Apple can come to that party and still wind up winning in the end?

Having piles of money when everyone else is lighting it on fire and a brand that would require quite the mistake to ruin gives you a long runway.

Is anyone really profiting from AI yet? I know Google basically saved their search monopoly but any one else?

	▲	rickdeckard 3 days ago \| parent \| next [-]
		> How late do you think Apple can come to that party and still wind up winning in the end? In my view Apple is positioning themselves (once more) to win without the need of competing on fair grounds. They are late to this party, but their biggest asset is the control over the data and spending of their users. The users WANT to use those services, and Apple is not ready to offer anything. But as long as they can be the "broker" between the user and such services (and most of all the deciding party!), they can sell the consumption of their entire userbase for revenue-share to the service-providers. Their biggest risk (beside of stock-market impacts) is, that Apple users start to engage directly with such services without Apple being an intermediary party (using a browser or another device). So their highest priority will be to keep the user entertained so they can continue profiting from their consumption until they themselves have arrived at the party. Once they have arrived, they will start diverting profitable AI-tasks from 3rd parties back to their own services, leaving unprofitable ones to the then-integrated 3rd party providers
	▲	bigyabai 3 days ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		> Is anyone really profiting from AI yet? ...Nvidia? Did you just step out of a cryogenic chamber from 2008? The datacenter business is booming right now, cutting-edge and efficient hardware is needed more than ever. Nvidia and Apple are the only two companies in the world with the design chops and TSMC inroads to address that market. Nvidia's fully committed and making money hand over fist; Apple is putting 2nm silicon in the iPad Pro and asking fucking consumers to pay $1,500 for it. Do you not see the issue with this business model? People will say Apple can't crack the datacenter market, I say bullshit. Apple drafted OpenCL. Every dollar Nvidia makes is money Apple pissed away on trinkets like smartwatches and TikTok tablets.