| ▲ | somenameforme 2 days ago |
| Yip, the famous example here being John Maynard Keynes, of Keynesian economics. [1] He predicted a 15 hour work week following productivity gains that we have long since surpassed. And not only did he think we'd have a 15 hour work week, he felt that it'd be mostly voluntary - with people working that much only to give themselves a sense of purpose and accomplishment. Instead our productivity went way above anything he could imagine, yet there was no radical shift in labor. We just instead started making billionaires by the thousand, and soon enough we can add trillionaires. He underestimated how many people were willing to designate the pursuit of wealth as the meaning of life itself. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics |
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| ▲ | schmichael 2 days ago | parent | next [-] |
| Productivity gains are more likely to be used to increase margins (profits and therefore value to shareholders) then it is to reduce work hours. At least since the Industrial Revolution, and probably before, the only advance that has led to shorter work weeks is unions and worker protections. Not technology. Technology may create more surplus (food, goods, etc) but there’s no guarantee what form that surplus will reach workers as, if it does at all. |
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| ▲ | bloppe 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Margins require a competitive edge. If productivity gains are spread throughout a competitive industry, margins will not get bigger; prices will go down. | | |
| ▲ | LPisGood 2 days ago | parent [-] | | That feels optimistic. This kind of naive free market ideology seems to rarely manifest in lower prices. | | |
| ▲ | degamad a day ago | parent | next [-] | | That's because free markets don't always result in competitive industries. | |
| ▲ | bloppe a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Then maybe you've never worked in a competitive industry. I have. Margins were very small. | | |
| ▲ | LPisGood a day ago | parent [-] | | I’ve certainly spent time in the marketplace buying or not buying products. |
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| ▲ | HDThoreaun a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | Every competitive industry has tiny margins. High margin business exists because of lack of competition. | | |
| ▲ | LPisGood a day ago | parent [-] | | I think there are plenty of counter examples. | | |
| ▲ | HDThoreaun 17 hours ago | parent [-] | | Every rule has exceptions. Usually its because of some quirk of the market. The most obvious example is adtech, which is able to sustain massive margins because the consumers get the product for free so see no reason to switch and the advertisers are forced to follow the consumers. Tech in general has high margins but I expect them to fall as the offerings mature. Companies will always try to lock in their users like aws/oracle do but thats just a sign of an uncompetitive market imo. |
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| ▲ | anon7000 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Productivity gains are more likely to be used to increase margins (profits and therefore value to shareholders) then it is to reduce work hours I mean, that basically just sums up how capitalism works. Profit growth is literally (even legally!) the only thing a company can care about. Everything else, like product quality, pays service to that goal. | | |
| ▲ | timClicks 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Sorry if this is somewhat pedantic, but I believe that only US companies (and possibly only Delaware corporations?) are bound by the requirement to maximize shareholder value and then only by case law rather than statue. Other jurisdictions allow the directors more discretion, or place more weight on the company's constitution/charter. | |
| ▲ | tirant 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | That’s not a good summary of capitalism at all because you omit the part where interests of sellers and buyers align. Which is precisely what has made capitalism successful. Profit growth is based primarily on offering the product that best matches the consumer wish at the lowest price, and production cost possible. That benefits both the buyer and the seller. If the buyer does not care about product quality, then you will not have any company producing quality products. The market is just a reflection of that dinámica. And in the real world we can easily observed that: Many market niches are dominated by quality products (outdoor and safety gear, professional and industrial tools…) while others tend to be dominated by non-quality (low end fashion, toys). And that result is not imposed by profit growth but by the average consumer preference. You can of course disagree with those consumer preferences and don’t buy low quality products, that’s why you most probably also find high products in any market niche. But you cannot blame companies for that. What they sell is just the result of the aggregated buyers preferences and the result of free market decisions. | | |
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| ▲ | goatlover 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Failure of politics and the media then. Majority of voters have been fooled into voting against their economic interests. |
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| ▲ | thedailymail 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| In the same essay ("Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren," 1930) where he predicted the 15-hour workweek, Keynes wrote about how future generations would view the hoarding of money for money's sake as criminally insane. "There are changes in other spheres too which we must expect to come. When the accumulation of wealth is no longer of high social importance, there will be great changes in the code of morals. We shall be able to rid ourselves of many of the pseudo-moral principles which have hag-ridden us for two hundred years, by which we have exalted some of the most distasteful of human qualities into the position of the highest virtues. We shall be able to afford to dare to assess the money-motive at its true value. The love of money as a possession – as distinguished from the love of money as a means to the enjoyments and realities of life – will be recognised for what it is, a somewhat disgusting morbidity, one of those semi-criminal, semi-pathological propensities which one hands over with a shudder to the specialists in mental disease. All kinds of social customs and economic practices, affecting the distribution of wealth and of economic rewards and penalties, which we now maintain at all costs, however distasteful and unjust they may be in themselves, because they are tremendously useful in promoting the accumulation of capital, we shall then be free, at last, to discard." |
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| ▲ | somenameforme 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | A study [1] I was looking at recently was extremely informative. It's a poll from UCLA given to incoming classes that they've been carrying out since the 60s. In 1967 86% of student felt it was "essential" or "very important" to "[develop] a meaningful philosophy of life", while only 42% felt the same of "being very well off financially." By 2015 those values had essentially flipped, with only 47% viewing a life philosophy as very important, and 82% viewing being financially well off as very important. It's rather unfortunate it only began in 1967, because I think we would see an even more extreme flip if we were able to just go back a decade or two more, and back towards Keynes' time. As productivity and wealth accumulation increased, society seems to have trended in the exact opposite direction he predicted. Or at least there's a contemporary paradox. Because I think many, if not most, younger people hold wealth accumulation with some degree of disdain yet also seek to do the exact same themselves. In any case, in a society where wealth is seen as literally the most important aspect in life, it's not difficult to predict what follows. [1] - https://www.heri.ucla.edu/monographs/50YearTrendsMonograph20... | | |
| ▲ | odo1242 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Well, keep in mind students at UCLA at 1967 were probably among the most wealthy in the country. A lot more average people at UCLA nowadays. Of course being financially well off wouldn't be the most important thing if you were already financially well off. | | |
| ▲ | somenameforme 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Interesting question that the study can also answer, because it also asked about parental income! --- 1966 Median Household Income = $7400 [1]. 51% of students in the $0-9999 bracket Largest chunk of students (33%) in $6k-$9999 bracket. Percent of students from families earning at least 2x median = 23% --- 2015 Median Household Income = $57k [1]. 65% of students came from families earning more than $60k. Largest chunk of students (18%) in $100k-$150k bracket. Percent of students from families earning at least 2x median = 44% --- So I think it's fairly safe to say that the average student at UCLA today comes from a significantly wealthier family than in 1966. [1] - https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1967/demo/p60-05... [2] - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA646N | | |
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| ▲ | tirant 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I wonder what would be the proportion of answers between different society economic levels. What we know so far though is that many of the traditional values were bound to the old society structures, based on the traditional family. The advent of the sexual revolution, brought by the contraception pill, completely obliterated those structures, changing the family paradigm since then. Only accentuated in the last decade by social media and the change in the sexual marketplace due to dating apps. Probably today many young people would just prioritize reputation (eg followers) over wealth and life philosophy. As that seems to be the trend that dictates the sexual marketplace dinámics. | |
| ▲ | imtringued a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | The paradox is that the general principles of the market work, but the market is invisibly dysfunctional in its details. It is generally true that higher income jobs are allocated to higher productivity workers, but it does not follow that high incomes imply high productivity and vice versa for low incomes. If you combine the above with a disequilibrium market where supply of labor exceeds the demand for labor, then from a naive perspective it would appear as if the unemployed would deserve their unemployment. After all, the most productive members are all employed and rewarded for their efforts. The unemployed are just lazy (voluntarily unemployed) and incompetent (society is better off without them). Any form of punishment is seen as justified and not some structural failing of the system. The problem is that if there is a labor market disequilibrium, there will always be unemployed people and even if you think the productivity ranking is a good thing, it just means that if one of the "lazy" people suddenly becomes "hard working", they will just take the place of someone else and nothing has changed other than that the standard for laziness has risen. Even if people notice that the system is fundamentally broken, they realize that individually, they are either a beneficiary of the system and therefore don't see a reason to change it or they don't have the ability to change the system and rather focus on taking someone else's place. This will result in an artificial Darwinian rat race where people see each other as competitors to defeat. This is my explanation for why immigrants make a good scapegoat even though immigration doesn't affect the rules of the game at all. Here is an analogy via a game of musical chairs. There is the perception that more immigrants means more players competing for chairs. This is a naive interpretation that looks obvious. What is being forgotten is that each player is bringing a new chair and the number of missing chairs is a percentage of the number of players. The truth is that having more immigrants means you can take their chair away for yourself. So immigration is not causative here. The problem is that there were never enough chairs to begin with no matter how many people are playing the game. |
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| ▲ | refactor_master 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | > We shall be able to rid ourselves of many of the pseudo-moral principles which have hag-ridden us for two hundred years Still haven’t gotten rid of work for work’s sake being a virtue, which explains everything else. Welfare? You don’t “deserve” it. Until we solve this problem, we’re not or less heading straight for feudalism. |
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| ▲ | azan_ a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > We just instead started making billionaires by the thousand, and soon enough we can add trillionaires. Didn’t we also get standards of living much higher than he would ever imagine? I think blaming everything on billionaires is really misguided and shallow. |
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| ▲ | somenameforme 16 hours ago | parent [-] | | It depends on how you value things. I'd prefer to have a surplus of time and a scarcity of gizmos, rather than a surplus of gizmos and a scarcity of time. Obviously basic needs being met is very important, but we've moved way beyond that as a goal, while somehow also kind of simultaneously missing it. |
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| ▲ | machomaster 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] |
| > We just instead started making billionaires by the thousand, and soon enough we can add trillionaires. We just instead started doing Bullshit Jobs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs |