We can't know for sure, but my guess is that Itanium still could have failed. I could imagine an alternative universe where, even with HP-UX and WinXP running on it, no one wanted to deal with porting their application software. And its emulation of 32-bit code (both in hardware and in software) was atrocious, so running existing, unported code wouldn't really take off either.

Eventually Intel gives up after motherboard/desktop/laptop makers can't build a proper market for it. Maybe Intel then decides to go back and do something similar to what AMD did with x86_64. Maybe Intel just gives up on 64-bit and tries to convince people it's not necessary, but then starts losing market share to other companies with viable 64-bit ISAs, like IMB's POWER64 or Sun's SPARC64 or whatever.

Obviously we can't know, but I think my scenario is at least as likely as yours.

If there was no alternative way to run Windows with more than 4 GB, eventually they would no matter what.

Considering that PAE was a gimmick anyway.