I call it the "Persistent Incompetence of Software Development", which is another perspective on estimation, focused more on expertise. A chef that cooks pizzas, cooks the same pizza over and over again and becomes amazing at it. If you are a developer that writes the same code over and over, you are terrible at software development. A good software developer should always be solving new problems, as by the nature of software, once they solve a problem, they never solve that (exact) problem again. So we are persistently incompenent.

Which is why software development can't be estimated, as well. Because it is all, as you say, novel. With infinite error bars.

At this point, I can't take anyone seriously that believes software dev can be estimated.