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laichzeit0 3 hours ago

Unfortunately, this is an observational study and when you get to the confounding part, they kind of shrug their shoulders and say “well, we included a bunch of covariates that should reduce make the bias go away”, but there’s no causal diagram so we have no idea how they reasoned about this. If you’ve read even something layman friendly like Pearl’s Book of Why you should be feeling nervous about this.

biophysboy an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Establishing a causal graph like this is not realistic for medical studies. Luckily we have multiple RCTs

Palomides 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

doing a double blind study of a vaccine that seems to work very well for a potentially lethal disease seems morally questionable

vkou 26 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

And when you do, the critics will just shift the goal posts, again.

2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
ekianjo 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> seems to work very well for a potentially lethal disease

not lethal for all age groups, we already knew it well before the vaccine was introduced. People may have short memories, the vaccine came almost a year after the disease was out, and we knew very well by then that it did not kill everyone, broadly.

majormajor 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> not lethal for all age groups, we already knew it well before the vaccine was introduced. People may have short memories, the vaccine came almost a year after the disease was out, and we knew very well by then that it did not kill everyone, broadly.

And the vaccine wasn't trialed or rolled out initially for all age groups. One major reason was because double-blind trials were done first.

For instance, here is the enrollment page for a double-blind study from 2020 for those between 18-55: https://studypages.com/s/join-a-covid-19-vaccine-research-st...

This one was was 18-59: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04582344 with two cohorts: "The first cohort will be healthcare workers in the high risk group (K-1) and the second cohort will be people at normal risk (K-2)"

If you look at case rates, hospitalization load, and death rates for summer/fall/winter 2020 pre-vaccine, and compare to the load on the system in summer-2021 and later when people were far more social and active, the economy was starting to recover, then the efficacy of the vaccine was pretty obvious in letting people get out of lockdown without killing hugely more people and overwhelming the healthcare system. And it was tested pre-rollout in double-blind fashion and rolled out in a phased way to the most needy groups first, with monitoring and study of those groups.

What, concretely, are you proposing should have been done differently?

dionian an hour ago | parent [-]

we could let people choose whether to participate, with informed consent. instead of getting them fired for not participating in the experiment.

raddan 31 minutes ago | parent [-]

Did you even follow the link provided? It leads directly to an informed consent page for the study, which was voluntary. You're probably thinking about what happened _after_ these studies found the vaccine to be safe and effective. If you're a doctor or a nurse, you work in a special environment, and if you are turning down a safe and effective vaccine, you are putting your patients at risk. It means that you are unqualified for your job, so yes, you should be fired.

In the US at least, most people are employed "at will" [1], which means that you can be fired for reasons far less egregious than actually putting your patients at risk. Most of the libertarian types here cheer firings for lots of reasons, but for some reason being fired for actually being a health risk is not one of those things. That just makes no sense.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At-will_employment

biophysboy an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

morbidity is also bad and should be prevented

arp242 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Besides, homeopathy has been studied for ages with tons and tons of quality studies.

Did it get rid of all the homeopathic quackery?

They will always have an excuse. If all else fails it'll just be a vague generic "oh yeah, it's just something deeper your science can't measure yet" or something along those lines. The Queen was an amateur hand-waver in comparison.

Never mind it was never very likely to work in the first place, on account of defying basic logic on several levels: like cures like, the whole water memory business, the more you dilute the stronger it becomes – nothing about this makes any sense.

I miss the days when worry about the adverse effects of homeopathy was the top concern...

turnsout 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Are there really antivax people that would know the word "covariate?" That's gotta be a small Venn diagram overlap.

dghlsakjg 14 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

They might know the word. Understanding what it means in context is a different matter.

You see this all the time where people will pick up niche jargon and misapply it.

biophysboy 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Antivaxers surpisingly know quite a lot of lingo. What they lack is an understanding of experimental methods.

dionian an hour ago | parent [-]

I'm fine with vaccines, i just dont want my kids to particpate in the experiemnt for a disease that they have 0% chance of dying from.

biophysboy an hour ago | parent | next [-]

The case fatality ratio for measles infected children in high-income countries is also low. Nonetheless, we vaccinate children for this infectious disease because morbidity is also bad.

margalabargala 13 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Which disease is that? I'm not aware of any disease that's commonly vaccinated against that has a 0% death rate in children.

ceejayoz an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Sovcits similarly use lots of complicated legal terms.

They just don't use them correctly and/or appropriately.