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shubhamjain 7 hours ago

I am a person who wants to maintain a distance from the AI-hype train, but seeing a chart like this [1], I can't help think that we are nowhere near the peak. The weekly token consumption keeps on rising, and it's already in trillions, and this ignores a lot of consumption happening directly through APIs.

Nvidia could keep delivering record-breaking numbers, and we may well see multiple companies hit six, seven, or even eight trillion dollars in market cap within a couple of years. While I am skeptical of claims like AI will make programming obsolete, but it’s clear that the adoption is still going like crazy and it's hard to anticipate when the plateau happens.

[1]: https://openrouter.ai/state-of-ai#open-vs_-closed-source-mod...

mike_hearn an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Problem is that most of that growth is in models being underpriced. We don't know what the demand curve looks like when tokens are priced to cover the full operating costs of the companies making them.

Also, growth seems to be linear, not exponential.

hattmall 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

When it's as cheap as 5 cents per million tokens I don't see "trillions" as being a particularly large number. Even at the most expensive level($120/1M for 5 Pro) 100 trillion tokens is only like $12 billion dollars.