I can't be sure, but this sounds entirely possible to me.

There are many, many people, and websites, dedicated to roleplaying, and those people will often have conversations lasting thousands of messages with different characters. I know a people whose personal 'roleplay AI' budget is a $1,000/month, as they want the best quality AIs.

OpenRouter classifies content by the app that's used to interact with the llm. https://openrouter.ai/docs/app-attribution

Would be good to look into those particular statistics, then. Seems like the category could include all sorts of stuff:

> This indicates that users turn to open models primarily for creative interactive dialogues (such as storytelling, character roleplay, and gaming scenarios) and for coding-related tasks. The dominance of roleplay (hovering at more than 50% of all OSS tokens) underscores a use case where open models have an edge: they can be utilized for creativity and are often less constrained by content filters, making them attractive for fantasy or entertainment applications. Roleplay tasks require flexible responses, context retention, and emotional nuance - attributes that open models can deliver effectively without being heavily restricted by commercial safety or moderation layers. This makes them particularly appealing for communities experimenting with character-driven experiences, fan fiction, interactive games, and simulation environments.

I could imagine something like D&D or other types of narrative adventures on demand with a machine that never tires of exploring subplots or rewriting sections to be a bit different is a pretty cool thing to have. Either that, or writing fiction, albeit hopefully not entire slop books that are sold, but something to draw inspiration from and do a back and forth.

In regards to NSFW stuff, a while back people were clowning on OpenAI for suggesting that they'd provide adult writing content to adults, but it might as well be a bunch of money that's otherwise left on the table. Note: I'm all for personal freedom, though one also has to wonder about the longer term impact of those "AI girlfriend/boyfriend" trends, you sometimes see people making videos about those subreddits. Oh well, not my place to judge.

Edit: oh hey, there is more data there after all

> Among the highest-volume categories, roleplay stands out for its consistency and specialization. Nearly 60% of roleplay tokens fall under Games/Roleplaying Games, suggesting that users treat LLMs less as casual chatbots and more as structured roleplaying or character engines. This is further reinforced by the presence of Writers Resources (15.6%) and Adult content (15.4%), pointing to a blend of interactive fiction, scenario generation, and personal fantasy. Contrary to assumptions that roleplay is mostly informal dialogue, the data show a well-defined and replicable genre-based use case.

I strongly bet that this is it.

"act as a senior xxx expert with over 15 years of industry experience"

... I just don't get why LLMs are affected by this kind of nonsense -- is it due to training rewards?

I'm curious what percentage of claude/codex users this is true for - I assumed their business models rely on this not being true for the majority.