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ta20240528 4 hours ago

If China can survive — and even start to thrive without ASML and TMSC, then have no doubt that should push come to shove Europe will be able to run a mail server and some office tools.

They’re just hedging that American politics will stop licking the car battery.

YC398739847 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

EU politicians are just too dependent on keeping the status quo of the last decade. The status quo is how they got to their position so they have no incentive to change anything (Starmer, Merz, Marcon, Von der Lyen. Yuck). By the time they finally get the shove they need to rapidly decouple, e.g. when America invades The Hague* to rescue Netanyahu from war crimes charges, it will be when they're already on the edge of the proverbial cliff.

*: https://www.hrw.org/news/2002/08/03/us-hague-invasion-act-be...

ta20240528 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The usa couldnt handle Aghanistan. Now they are invading continental Europe?

As I said, still licking the car battery.

jack_tripper 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

>The usa couldnt handle Aghanistan

Reddit level argument ignoring the fact that the US's goal there wasn't to win anything since there's nothing of value there, it was to funnel taxpayer money to the military industrial complex for 15 years.

Pretty sure the US could have glassed Afghanistan off the map if they really wanted but probably wouldn't have been very popular decision.

lossolo an hour ago | parent [-]

> US's goal there wasn't to win anything since there's nothing of value there

War is only a tool, dominating a country or region militarily is not the same as winning a war if you have not achieved its political goals. In Afghanistan, those goals were not achieved, which means the war was lost.

Loughla 40 minutes ago | parent [-]

What were the goals for Afghanistan?

lukan 32 minutes ago | parent [-]

Destroying Al Quaida and their host, the Taliban. Al Quaida might be gone, but I believe Taliban are in power today and the US left in a not so glorious way after giving up fighting them.

freehorse 9 minutes ago | parent [-]

Not just "giving up fighting them": when the US decided to leave, the taliban were in a stronger position than they were before the US invaded (eg they controlled a bigger part of the country and had much less opposition inside afghanistan). The war was already lost long before the US decided to leave.

dghlsakjg 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

In fairness, the US has a pretty good record when it comes to invading continental Europe. They already have troops and nukes on the ground in the Netherlands...

And they didn't exactly struggle with the invasion parts of Afghanistan and Iraq, nor in the getting of high status targets in those theaters.

Arguably, the ICJ in the Hague is actually a result of one of those successful deployments of US forces on the continent.

Still not sure what can be done about the car battery ingestion challenges, though.

throawayonthe 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

i think it's one of those things where how/if they will do it doesn't matter, it's a "we make the rules" thing

if the situation is such that a US -> Netherlands land invasion (with somehow independent armed forces?) is imaginable, you're past the point of the US-ICC legal relations mattering (i'd go so far as to say there's no sovereignty to speak of here :p)

YC9834689 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Most European countries barely have a standing military to defend themselves, they're completely dependent on the USA for defense through NATO. And their leadership is so docile and complacent that I can't see them being able to muster up a strong resistance to any incursion, most likely if there was an actual invasion of The Hague they would let America do what they need to and try to return back to business as usual as quickly as possible. Again, they're not the types to think beyond the status quo.

wiseowise 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Only invasion, or a real threat of invasion, from Russia, US or China can shook Europe into real change.

athrowaway3z 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The EU has - just like the US - a generation of boomer senators and presidents in (voting) power for more than 2 decades at this point.

In the coming decade, that will change.

Hopefully for the better.

graemep 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Europe is not a political entity or an organisation. Who exactly will do it? The EU, some EU country, Russia, the UK, Switzerland, some cooperative agreement...?

trinix912 3 hours ago | parent [-]

We're talking about running a few mail server, network shares, and an office suite (LibreOffice if you want). Any university's in-house IT department should be able to pull that off, and it's exactly what many did for a very long time.

rorylawless 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If Universities are anything like other large public/public-adjacent organizations, the bulk of the in-house IT department was long since replaced by Microsoft resellers posing as IT. It’s insidious.

freehorse 4 minutes ago | parent [-]

Not all universities in Europe are like this, but some are 100% like this. But if there was a larger political directive towards a more autonomous solution, it would eventually work, I think.

ClikeX 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The trap of Microsoft is long contracts and setting up dependency. In many cases it was a big undertaking to get the current setup, now try convincing anyone to tear it out.

graemep 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

China is bigger, and a lot more ambitious, and is willing to put resources into it.

European countries (except maybe Russia!), in the EU and outside, are very complacent.

trinix912 4 hours ago | parent [-]

It's not as much about complacency as it is about the lack of funding and resources. We're talking about countries with government budgets as low as 20 billion USD. Looking at common election promises, people here would rather see that money spent on non-profit housing, healthcare, infrastructure, than some ambitious AI or tech project that they likely wouldn't directly benefit from - at least compared to the things mentioned before - so there's little money left for "developing our own MS Office / LLM / Google".

Whereas China not only has a much bigger budget than individual EU countries, but also central planning on a large scale, so they can just "force" things be done, no matter whether people like it or not. China giving 0.01% for such projects is way more money than a small EU country giving the same %. And it's not like they'll vote the party out for a failed project (which happens in EU countries quite often).

canyp 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Does China actually "force" things to be done? As far as I can tell, in the realm of technology at least, the government mostly just sets direction and then lets private capital do its thing, albeit without letting power concentrate in a way that subverts government.

anonzzzies 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

When they want something to be done, it just gets done. I guess that is the point; I was working in China when one year there were 0 electric scooters; the next year, only. Gas scooters were forbidden overnight basically and that was that. Try doing that over here...

canyp an hour ago | parent [-]

Hilarious. Such efficiency, not even the free markets can catch up!

Also, curious: did you not like it there and left, or was that a fixed-duration contract or something?

anonzzzies 34 minutes ago | parent [-]

I loved it (still go on holiday), but the sentiment changed (during/after HK + Covid) and clients started to demand non-china produced electronics so we had to leave.

code123456789 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yes, see Great Chinese Firewall. Providing a VPN access to civilians is a criminal offense in PRC. This is not the same as forcing companies to use domestic software, but to illustrate the ability of Chinese government to implement draconian limitations in general.

throwawaysleep 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Push has come to shove and has been shoving for nearly a decade. Europeans continue to be incapable. As a Canadian I wish they were not, but they are.

anonzzzies 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The problem is , there are very few Europeans or EUans. There are French and Germans and Spanish etc; they all want their country first and sure open markets but their country first. That is how they vote (certainly these days). Most people do not feel EU unfortunately. Language is one thing: it is getting better but having language not unified (English, Spanish, Mandarin; pick one) is a massive and real issue keeping people's minds and efforts local instead of, at least EU wide. It is slowly getting better but the EU should made easier accessible and far higher funds for pan EU projects. Currently it is a serious pain to get access to EU funds and many just get eaten by the few massive consultancy corps who have dedicated teams going for any funding and tender in any locality and language.

lpcvoid an hour ago | parent [-]

Well written. I hope one day the united states of europe is a real political entity, burying the stupidity that is fragmented national interests.

systemtest an hour ago | parent [-]

As a EU citizen that moved to a different EU country: Yes please!

I constantly need a VPN as some services from my old country are geo-blocked. And when I forget to disable the VPN to my old country I can't visit certain sites from my current country. I need two phone numbers as some services require a phone number from the country they operate out of. I'm talking banking, classifieds, insurance, municipal. I can't use certain apps from my current country because I have to switch my account country but that disables apps from my old country.

And the best part, I can't vote for the national elections in my current country. Only for those in my old country. And it will be like that for the rest of my life. An example: I had to enable VPN to see the election results of my old country, the one I am eligible to vote in.

Please unify the EU so I don't have to deal with all of this.

econ an hour ago | parent [-]

Having people vote who don't live in the country has always struck me as weird. If you are some place else for say a year or even 10 years it seems a reasonable topic for debate but longer?? Never pay taxes either???

vladms 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It's more a risk management issue. A country that wants to do everything by itself (from food, to shovels, to cars, to computers) will not be the most efficient and will loose a lot. Before '90s communist countries were "proud" that everything was produced locally - except many things were breaking or bad quality or unavailable (not all, but many).

I would claim that today is a much better moment to switch than it was 20 years ago - much more open source options, so less overall costs.

osener 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I knew plenty of office workers managing just fine using OpenOffice 10-15 years ago.

Today people are much more reliant on real-time collaboration, polished cloud and mobile experiences. Fractionalized open source software has a harder time competing with this than file based boxed software workflows of the past.

boznz 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Agree, Personally I consider these newer systems a curse as far as productivity goes, using a simple email/open-office combination never caused any issues with clients or suppliers in the last 20 years.

mantas 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Coming from ex-USSR, I can assure you that shortages and shitty quality was not because of closed garden. But because of politics (and corruption) first. And lack of meritocratic natural selection.

Many factories were building crap or wrong stuff just because somebody high up in the Party found it convenient for some reason.

trinix912 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Yugoslavia didn't have centralized planning for products, one could even argue it had a meritocratic natural selection (sort of) and there still were shortages.

Maybe the EU as a whole could pull off being 'fully independent' but it would require way more collaboration between countries than what we currently have.

mantas 4 hours ago | parent [-]

And, compared to USSR, Yugos production was much higher quality and shortages were much smaller.

EU could become fully independent by simply taxing imports. Designated collaboration between countries would just lead to inefficient central planning style stuff. Which is how many trans-Europe projects died