It feels like any time scale on AGI is basically just made up. Since no one has any idea of how to get there, how could you possibly estimate how long it will take? We could stumble on some secret technique that unlocks AGI tomorrow or it could be literally impossible. You might as well ask how long until humans can cast magic spells.

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this_user 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The people most qualified to make an educated guess simultaneously have a direct financial incentive to claim that it is in reach within a few years. The only one who doesn't seem to care all that much is Le Cun.

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ACCount37 2 hours ago | parent [-]

He's under a direct financial incentive to claim otherwise.

If AGI is reachable in 5 years with today's architectures, then why would anyone fund his pet research in novel AI architectures?

	▲	benterix 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		To have an alternative? So far the work on transformers was done in a large part in the open (except OpenAI which tried to be as closed as possible). There is zero guarantee that whoever discovers the path to AGI decides to publish the paper etc. It's just one of many reasons (a less important one IMO) why research into novel AI approaches is valuable for humanity.

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lagniappe 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

When you see these claims it's important to frame the assertion contextually as in the transformer generation, AGI is 10+ years away. This does not, however, account for the next architecture that will do more with less.

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FiberBundle 3 hours ago | parent [-]

This is inconsistent with people like Hassabis or Sutskever giving time frames while also saying that LLMs won't get us to AGI.

	▲	2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		[deleted]

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NaomiLehman 8 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

that post didn't even define AGI, right?

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Keyframe 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

We might start by trying to define what AGI exactly is. It's an elusive goal.

	▲	iknowSFR 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		As every consultant will eventually respond as that conversation sputters: it might be easier for us to define what AGI isn’t.