Right about where it is today with better integrations?

One year is the difference between Sonnet 3.5 and Opus 4.5. We're not hitting diminishing returns yet (mostly because of exponential capex scaling, but still). We're already committed to ~3 years of the current trajectory, which means we can expect similar performance boosts year over year.

The key to keep in mind is that LLMs are a giant bag of capabilities, and just because we hit diminishing returns on one capability, that doesn't say much if anything about your ability to scale other capabilities.

You buried the lede with “exponential capex scaling”. How is this technology not like oil extraction?

The bulk of that capex is chips, and those chips are straight up depreciating assets.