> When do you expect that impact? I think the models seem smarter than their economic impact would imply.

> Yeah. This is one of the very confusing things about the models right now.

As someone who's been integrating "AI" and algorithms into people's workflows for twenty years, the answer is actually simple. It takes time to figure out how exactly to use these tools, and integrate them into existing tooling and workflows.

Even if the models don't get any smarter, just give it a few more years and we'll see a strong impact. We're just starting to figure things out.

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myrmidon 12 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Another limitation that I see right now is that for "economic impact" you want the things to have initiative and some agency, and there is well-justified hesitancy in providing that even where possible.

Having a bunch of smart developers that are not allowed to do anything on their own and have to be prompted for every single action is not too advantageous if everyone is human, either ;)

	▲	kanwisher a few seconds ago \| parent [-]
		Screw driver doesnt have agency but it certainly helps me get tasks done faster. AIs don't need agency to accelerate a ton of work

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jiriknesl 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Oh yes, this is 100% accurate.

Very often, when designing ERP, or other system, people think: "This is easy, I just this XYZ I am done." Then, you find that there are many corner use-cases. XYZ can be split to phases, you might need to add approvals, logging, data integrations... and what was a simple task, becomes 10 tasks.

In the first year of CompSci uni, our teacher told us a thing I remember: Every system is 90% finished 90% of time. He was right.

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coder-3 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

As someone who is building an LLM-powered product on the side, using AI coding agents to help with development of said LLM-powered product and for my day job, and has a long-tail of miscellaneous uses for AI, I suspect you're right.

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tim333 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Beyond that the smartness is very patchy. They can do math problems beyond 99% of humans but lack the common sense understanding to take over most jobs.

	▲	reeredfdfdf an hour ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Yep, the lack of commons sense is sometimes very evident. For instance, one of these popular generative AI services refused to remove copyright watermark from an image when asked directly. Then I told it that the image has weird text artifacts on it, and asked it to remove them. That worked perfectly.
	▲	ACCount37 2 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Most jobs involve complex long term tasks - which isn't something that's natural to LLMs.

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weatherlite an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Even if the models don't get any smarter, just give it a few more years and we'll see a strong impact. We're just starting to figure things out.

2 years ? 15 years ? It matters a lot for people, the stock market and governments

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otabdeveloper4 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> the models seem smarter than their economic impact would imply

Key word is "seem".