| ▲ | delichon 11 hours ago | ||||||||||||||||
If the scaling reaches the point at which the AI can do the research at all better than natural intelligence, then scaling and research amount to the same thing, for the validity of the bitter lesson. Ilya's commitment to this path is a statement that he doesn't think we're all that close to parity. | |||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | pron 10 hours ago | parent | next [-] | ||||||||||||||||
I agree with your conclusion but not with your premise. To do the same research it's not enough to be as capable as a human intelligence; you'd need to be as capable as all of humanity combined. Maybe Albert Einstein was smarter than Alexander Fleming, but Einstein didn't discover penicillin. Even if some AI was smarter than any human being, and even if it devoted all of its time to trying to improve itself, that doesn't mean it would have better luck than 100 human researchers working on the problem. And maybe it would take 1000 people? Or 10,000? | |||||||||||||||||
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| ▲ | samrus 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | ||||||||||||||||
I dont like this fanaticism around scaling. Reeks of extrapolating the s curve out to be exponential | |||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | slashdave 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | ||||||||||||||||
Well, he has to say that we currently aren't close to parity, because he wants people to give him money | |||||||||||||||||