Not really, by most indications AI seems to be an amplifier more than anything else. If you have strong discipline and quality control processes it amplifies your throughput, but if you don't, it amplifies your problems. (E.g. see the DORA 2025 report.)

So basically things will still go where they were always going to go, just a lot faster. That's not necessarily a bad thing.

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johnnyanmac a day ago | parent | next [-]

>If you have strong discipline and quality control processes

you're placing a lot of faith on this if-statement. in an article pretty much say that we in fact lack strong discipline and quality control.

	▲	keeda a day ago \| parent \| next [-]
		I meant it more as an observation than an optimistic prediction, really :-) The article is sound, but it's focus on large public failures disregards the vast, vast, vast majority of the universe of software projects that nobody really thinks about, because they mostly just work -- websites and mobile apps and games and internal LoB CRUD apps and cloud services and the huge ecosystem of open source projects and enterprise and hobby software. Without some consideration of that, we cannot really generalize this article to reflect the "success rate" of our industry. That said, I think the acceleration introduced by AI is overall a "Good Thing (tm)" simply because, all else being equal, it's generally better to fail faster rather than later.
	▲	venturecruelty a day ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		"If you do everything right that you weren't doing before, but with 80% fewer people and the Lie Generator that doesn't work, then you will be successful."

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mdavid626 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yes, AI can help, but it won’t. That’s my point.

In practice, it will make people even less care or pay attention. These big disasters will be written by people without any skills using AI.

	▲	keeda a day ago \| parent [-]
		But my point wasn't about AI helping or not, my point was AI will simply accelerate the natural trajectory of your organization. This is not a hypothetical, this is based on reports using large-scale data like DORA and DX: https://blog.robbowley.net/2025/11/05/findings-from-dxs-2025... Edited to add: To clarify, I meant that if an organization was going to deliver a billion-dollar boondoggle of a project, AI will not change that outcome, but it WILL help deliver that faster. Which is why I meant it's not necessarily a bad thing, because as in software, it's generally better to fail faster.

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venturecruelty a day ago | parent | prev [-]

I mean, I can fart into a megaphone and it'll get amplified, too.