Remix.run Logo
heinternets 21 hours ago

Apart from the obvious, China seems to be making incredibly reasonable decisions lately. Especially compared to the current superpower.

phs318u 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

To be fair, the current superpower has set a pretty low bar. By comparison, most other countries could be said to be making reasonable decisions.

inglor_cz 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

We should probably wait before declaring any decisions "incredibly reasonable". After all, the outcomes of previous rationally-sounding decisions were mixed.

One-child policy, intended to prevent overpopulation, made Chinese birth deficit worse than it would have to be - if it were phased out by 1995 or so, there would likely be at least 100 million more young people now. Chinese real estate bubble popped and had to be carefully deflated over several years. Government-driven mass investment into manufacturing resulted in involution and production surplus which now needs readjustments as well. And as of the AI policy, while the stated reasons sound rational, we don't know how the entire thing will pan out yet.

Ming China banned seafaring and exploration because it cost too much money. A very rational decision from their momentary perspective, as it indeed cost too much money at that time. But it turned out that not having a blue water navy was more costly in the long term.

AI may, or may not, follow a similar trajectory, including various market bubbles (South Sea Bubble anyone?). We just don't know. We don't have crystal balls at our service. Neither do the PRC elites.

janalsncm 3 hours ago | parent [-]

When Evergrande went down in 2021 a lot of commentary said this would take their whole economy down (or worse) similar to how the subprime mortgage bubble took down the US economy in 2007. That didn’t really happen.

refurb 2 hours ago | parent [-]

The problem is still unfolding. The debt overhang still exists from the housing bubble and is dragging on the economy.

It’s a problem that hasn’t been solved yet.