Endurance going down is hardly a surprise given that the feature size has gone down too. The same goes for logic and DRAM memory.

I suspect that 2035 years time, hardware from 2010 will work, while that from 2020 will be less reliable.

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lotrjohn a day ago | parent | next [-]

Completely anecdotal, and mostly unrelated, but my NES from 1990 is still going strong. Two PS3’s that I have owned simply broke.

CRTs from 1994 and 2002 still going strong. LCD tvs from 2012 and 2022 just went kaput for no reason.

Old hardware rocks.

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userbinator 20 hours ago | parent | next [-]

LCD tvs from 2012 and 2022 just went kaput for no reason.

Most likely bad capacitors. The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacitor_plague may have passed, but electrolytic capacitors are still the major life-limiting component in electronics.

	▲	londons_explore 18 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		MLCC's look ready to take over nearly all uses of electrolytics. They still degrade with time, but in a very predictable way. That makes it possible to build a version of your design with all capacitors '50 year aged' and check it still works. Sadly no engineering firm I know does this, despite it being very cheap and easy to do.
	▲	DoesntMatter22 6 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Looks like that plague stopped in 2007? I have a 8 year old LCD that died out of nowhere as well, So I'm guessing wouldn't be affected by this. Could still be a capacitor issue though

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theragra 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I had an LCD that worked from around 2005 to 2022. It became very yellow closer to 2022 for some reason. It was Samsung PVA, I think it was model 910T.

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amiga-workbench 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Its old enough to use a CFL backlight and those turn yellow with age.

	▲	theragra 4 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Thanks ;)

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Dylan16807 21 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

For what it's worth my LCD monitor from 2010 is doing well. I think the power supplied died at one point but I already had a laptop supply to replace it with.

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dfex 20 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Specifically old Japanese hardware from the 80s and 90s - this stuff is bulletproof

	▲	jacquesm 20 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I still have a Marantz amp from the 80's that works like new, it hasn't even been recapped.

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bullen 19 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I concur; in my experience ALL my 24/7 drives from 2009-2013 still work today and ALL my 2014+ are dead, started dying after 5 years, last one died 9 years later. Around 10 drives in each group. All older drives are below 100GB (SLC) all never are above 200GB (MLC). I reverted back to older drives for all my machines in 2021 after scoring 30x unused X25-E on ebay.

The only MLC I use today are Samsungs best industrial drives and they work sort of... but no promises. And SanDisc SD cards that if you buy the cheapest ones last a surprising amount of time. 32GB lasted 11-12 years for me. Now I mostly install 500GB-1TB ones (recently = only been running for 2-3 years) after installing some 200-400GB ones that work still after 7 years.

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Aurornis 11 hours ago | parent [-]

> in my experience ALL my 24/7 drives from 2009-2013 still work today and ALL my 2014+ are dead,

As a counter anecdote, I have a lot of SSDs from the late 2010s that are still going strong, but I lost some early SSD drives to mysterious and unexpected failures (not near the wear-out level).

	▲	bullen 9 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Interesting, what kind where they? Mine where all Intel.

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Dylan16807 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

As far as I'm aware flash got a bit of a size boost when it went 3D and hasn't shrunk much since then. If you use the same number of bits per cell, I don't know if I would expect 2010 and 2020 or 2025 flash to vary much in endurance.

For logic and DRAM the biggest factors are how far they're being pushed with voltage and heat, which is a thing that trends back and forth over the years. So I could see that go either way.

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robotnikman 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I recently found a 1GB USB drive from around 2006 I used to use. I plugged in and most of the files were still readable! There were some that were corrupted and unreadable unfortunately.

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tensility 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Oh, it would be nice if it were just feature size. Over the prior 15 years, the nand industry has doubled its logical density three times over with the trick of encoding more than one bit per physical voltage well, making the error bounds on leaking wells tighter and tighter and amplifying the bit rot impact, in number of ECC corrections consumed, per leaked voltage well.