I don't understand why you think an invasion or widespread airstrikes would be unlikely.

- Trump has been building up our military presence in the area over the last few months[1]

-He's already striking boats that he claims have weapons of mass destruct... I mean drugs in them

- Trump said “I don’t think we're going to necessarily ask for a declaration of war. I think we’re just going to kill people that are bringing drugs into our country, OK? We’re going to kill them,” [1]

- He declared the cartels terrorist groups [2]

I believe he's going to link Marudo to the cartels and use it to justify a war to force him out of power.

Republicans, will support him. He'll lie, like he always does, and they'll believe it either due to stupidity or tribalism. The further they follow him the more painful admitting they are wrong will be.

[1]https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-won-t-congress-ove...

[2]https://www.state.gov/designation-of-international-cartels

I haven't commented one way or another on the likelihood of an invasion. My claim is that an escalation from limited airstrikes to full-scale invasion would be wildly unpopular, which I stand by.