Except the Collatz Conjecture is almost certainly true, and there are no starting points that go on forever. Or did I miss the point of the analogy?

No you didn't misunderstand, I think. I thought there were some values that went on forever!

edit: however we could consider the weaker definition of "forever", and consider there are some outliers that go on "for a long time" per post title, probing structure with these loops and spokes. :D