Pets.com→Chewy

Webvan → Instacart, DoorDash, Amazon Fresh

Kozmo.com → Postmates, Uber Eats, Gopuff

Boo.com (fashion) → Farfetch, Net-a-Porter, ASOS

Broadcast.com → YouTube, Netflix, Twitch

The dot-com bubble didn’t prove the internet was a fad — it proved the internet was inevitable, but the valuations assumed adoption would happen in 2 years instead of 15–20. To me it feels like the AI inevitability will be much quicker.

> To me it feels like the AI inevitability will be much quicker.

Based on what? We're only seeing linear improvements for increasing spending. There's no new algorithm ideas on the horizon, just more and more hardware, in the hopes that if we throw enough RAM and CPU at the problem, it will suddenly become "AGI."

No one has their eye on power budgets or sustainability or durability of the system. The human brain has such a high degree of energy efficiency that I don't think people understand the realities of competing with it digitally.

The main problem "AI" seems to solve is that humans get bored with certain tasks. The language models obviously don't, but they do hallucinate, and checking for hallucinations is an exceedingly boring task. It's a coffin corner of bad ideas.

Technology for all the above existed in rudimentary form, faster Internet, faster machines and adoption was missing. But Current bets are assuming AGI. No one knows how soon. To predict that would be foolish.

If technology had been the same for the past 20 years, basically none of these would have existed, or would be even close as large as today. We needed way faster cable and mobile internet, and smartphones. Probably even smaller laptops. It was possible to predict these more or less, however, it was impossible to predict when or whether people start to really utilize the internet. Even now, we needed COVID to have another shift regarding this. The general acceptance of “internet first” kind of worldview maybe would have never happened without forcing us to have.

On the RHS, post hype, the second movers could work on the boring, unsexy problems in those domains nobody wanted to solve. And solve them extremely well. Then build a moat around that.

There is also a customer adoption curve of technology that lags far behind the technologist adoption curve. For example video on the Web failed a long time, until it didn't, when Youtube began to succeed. The problem became "boring" to technologists in some ways, but consumers gradually caught up.

Aside from a belief that the AI adoption will happen very quickly, which maybe that’s your main point, you’re not really disagreeing with the article:

> All this means two things to us: 1)The AI revolution will indeed be one of the biggest technology shifts in history. It will spark a generation of innovations that we can’t yet even imagine. 2) It’s going to take way longer to see those changes than we think it’s going to take right now.

> To me it feels like the AI inevitability will be much quicker.

AI is accelerating "let them eat cake" at rates never seen before in history, so I imagine the violence will follow soon after