I grew up in the 90's and remember being a computer nerd BEFORE the .com bubble, and starting my career precisely after it burst. Let me tell you one difference I personally am experiencing that differentiates the two. Note, this is a pro-'we're in a bubble' stance:

In the late 90's and early 2000's, businesses were SALIVATING to get online, individuals were finding new ways to benefit and profit from it, and massive investment was being made to facilitate what was inevitable: an interconnected network of everything. Do you remember faxing things ? Paper mail? People half in the know were pushing the Boomers and older Gen-X types to get on with it and modernize.

Now? Not only are people not CLAMORING for more AI, it's that The Powers that Be are forcing it down our throats. At work, we have mandatory AI training, we have people getting promoted for promoting extremely dubious AI solutions both internally and on our product. I log into ANY web site now, whether I'm shopping for a vacuum cleaner or logging into a vendor website, and I get AI shoved in my face, from from "assistant" I have to interact with before typing "agent" to new features I don't care about.

Is there some truth, some merit? Absolutely. But my red flag I'm trying to raise is this: never did it feel FORCED in the 90's, there was a salivation from individuals to get more online, and a reluctance from institutions like elementary and high schools to get with the program.

Now? Corporations large and small are shoving it down our throats. Why? Well, to justify the crazy spending.

I'm no prophet and the world (and economy) are fundamentally unpredictable. But I'll say this. I'm putting my money where my mouth is, and I've put in an order to buy a 5 digit dollar amount of puts on a big 'AI' type ETF, that'll expire in the Spring. It's already wobbling and if you can't beat them, profit off of them when they stumble.

There's absolutely something wrong in the current moment, even if AI is somehow the future. For one thing, the U.S. economy would probably be in a recession right now if it weren't for this insane AI spending. It's wobbled with the recent Nvidia earnings release, and I think it is going to dip (not crash, but start dipping) soon.

The author wrote:

"None of these companies has proven yet that AI is a good enough business to justify all this spending. But the first four are now each spending $70 billion to $100 billion a year to fund data centers and other capital intensive AI expenses. Oracle is spending roughly $20 billion a year. "

In my opinion it's a theoretical arms race 'just because my competitor might win', and not based on anything certain.

Work keeps forcing it on us. I’m hoping the bubble bursts just so I don’t have to hear about it at work anymore and can actually get some work done.