SELECT next_word, likelihood_stat FROM context ORDER BY 2 DESC LIMIT 1

is not reasoning; it just appears that way due to Clarke’s third law.

Sure, at the end of the day it selects the most probable token - but it has to compute the token probabilities first, and that's the part where it's hard to see how it could possibly produce a meaningful log like this without some form of reasoning (and a world model to base that reasoning on).

So, no, this doesn't actually answer the question in a meaningful way.

(Shrug) You've already had to move your goalposts to the far corner of the parking garage down the street from the stadium. Argument from ignorance won't help.