Feels like the tragedy of the commons: I don't want to look at the change, I don't want to take responsibility, somebody else will take care or it, I just have to wait.

Ok if this is an amazing advice and the entire ecosystem does that: just wait .... then what? We wait even more to be sure someone else is affected first?

Every time I see people saying you need to wait to upgrade it is like you are accumulating tech debt: the more you wait, the more painful the upgrade will be, just upgrade incrementally and be sure you have mitigations like 0 trust or monitoring to cut early any weird behavior.

You're not taking on any meaningful tech debt by waiting a week after a new version goes public to adopt it. As the OP says, there are services that scan popular open source tools for vulnerabilities as soon as they are released; even if a large percentage of the user base is waiting a week to update, many will still be caught in that period. And for various reasons some will still upgrade immediately.

You’re implicitly assuming that it’s exposure to downstream consumers that causes the malicious packages to be discovered, but we haven’t actually seen that in the last couple of major supply chain attacks. Instead it just buys time for the maintainers to undo the damage.

Even if less consumers will notice a compromise and report it, it still gives additional time for security researchers to analyze the packages, and for maintainers to notice themselves they got compromised

There are a lot of companies out there, that's scan packages and analyze them. Maintainers might notice a compromise, because a new release was published they didn't authorize. Or just during development, by getting all their bitcoin stolen ;)

This is just completely wrong. If you are talking about a sizeable number of devices, you're not getting anything updated immediately even if you wanted to. You roll out to groups over a period of time because you don't want to break everything if there are unintended consequences. Your personal device? Sure whatever, but any fleet of devices absolutely does not get immediate updates across the board.