These prediction markets are so ripe for abuse it's unbelievable. People need to realize there are real people on the other side of these bets. Brian Armstong, CEO of Coinbase intentionally altered the outcome of a bet by randomly stating "Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, Web3" at the end of an earnings call. These types of bets shouldn't be allowed.

The point of prediction markets isn't to be fair. They are not the stock market. The point of prediction markets is to predict. They provide a monetary incentive for people who are good at predicting stuff. Whether that's due to luck, analysis, insider knowledge, or the ability to influence the result is irrelevant. If you don't want to participate in an unfair market, don't participate in prediction markets.

It’s not really abuse though. These markets aggregate information; when an insider takes one side of a trade, they are selling their information about the true price (probability of the thing happening) to the market (and the price will move accordingly).

You’re spot on that people should think of who is on the other side of the trades they’re taking, and be extremely paranoid of being adversely selected.

Disallowing people from making terrible trades seems…paternalistic? Idk

>Brian Armstong, CEO of Coinbase intentionally altered the outcome of a bet by randomly stating "Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, Web3" at the end of an earnings call.

For the kind of person playing these sorts of games, that actually really "hype".

I’m pretty sure that these model release date markets are made to be abused. They’re just a way to pay insiders to tell you when the model will be released.

The mention markets are pure degenerate gambling and everyone involved knows that

Abuse sounds bad, this is good! Now we have a sneak peek into the future, for free! Just don't bet on any markets where an insider has knowledge (or don't bet at all)