> why should we believe someone that it's a bubble based on "feel"?

because leaders in the space also keep saying it? And then making financial moves that us pleebs can't even dream of, which back that up?

This whole "the media keeps reporting it" as a point against the credibility of something is utterly silly and illogical.

LLMs are particularly good at web development (granted that's a big market), probably due to a lot of the training material being that.

We don't know what AI should cost but if you look at the numbers then 2x more expensive is much too low.

Think about the pricing. OpenAI fixed everyone's prices to free and/or roughly the cost of a Netflix subscription, which in turn was pinned to the cost of a cable TV subscription (originally). These prices were made up to sound good to his friends, they weren't chosen based on sane business modelling.

Then everyone had to follow. So Anthropic launched Claude Code at the same price point, before realizing that was deadly and overnight the price went up by an order of magnitude. From $20 to $200/month, and even that doesn't seem to be enough.

If the numbers leaked to Ed Zitron are true then they aren't profitable on inference. But even if that were true, so what? It's a meaningless statement, just another way of saying they're still under-pricing their models. Inferencing and model licensing are their only revenue streams! That has to cover everything including training, staff costs, data licensing, lawsuits, support, office costs etc.

Maybe OpenAI can launch an ad network soon. That's their only hope of salvation but it's risky because if they botch it users might just migrate to Grok or Gemini or Claude.

If it subsidized it's a problem because we're not talking about Uber trying to disrupt a clearly flawed system of transportation. We're talking about companies whose entire promise is an industrial revolution of a scale we've never seen before. That is the level of the bet. The fact they did much better than the average professional is also your own take and assessment that is purely self evident. Also, your example has fundamentally no value. You mentioned a marginal use case that doesn't scale. Personal websites will be quicker to make because you can get whatever the AI spews your way, you have basically infinite flexibility and the only contraints are "getting it done" and "looking ok/good". That is not how larger business work, at all. So there is a massive issue of scalability of this. Finally, OpenAI "states" a lot of things, and a lot of them have been proven to be flat out lies, because they're led by a man who has been proved to be a pathological narcissistic liar many times over. Yet you keep drinking the kool aid, inlcuding about inference. There are by the way reports that, data in hand, prove quite convincingly that "being profitable on inference" seems to be math gymnastics, and not at all the financial reality of OpenAI.