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tylervigen 12 hours ago

For lay-users they could have explained that better. I think they may not have completely uninformed users in mind for this page though.

Developing an ensemble of possible scenarios has been the central insight of weather forecasting since the 1960s when Edward Lorenz discovered that tiny differences in initial conditions can grow exponentially (the "butterfly effect"). Since they could really do it in the 90s, all competitive forecasts are based on these ensemble models.

When you hear "a 70% chance of rain," it more or less means "there was rain in 70 of the 100 scenarios we ran."[0] There is no "single accurate forecast scenario."

[0] Acknowledging this dramatically oversimplifies the models and the location where the rain could occur.

sweettea 8 hours ago | parent [-]

My understanding is that it's an expected value based on coverage in each of the ensemble scenarios, not quite as simplified as "how many scenarios was there rain in this forecast cell".

At least for the US NWS: if 30 of 100 scenarios result in 50% shower coverage, and 70 out of 100 result in 0%, this is reported as 15% chance of rain. Which is exactly the same as 15 with 100% coverage and 85 with 0% coverage, or 100 with 15% coverage.

Understanding this, and digging further into the forecast, gives a better sense of whether you're likely to encounter widespread rainfall or spotty rainfall in your local area.