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varispeed 8 hours ago

I know one US business that used to make niche electronic product. Most components they used were from China. Got hit by the tariffs that wiped all the operating profit. Guy also had to sell his home and is now couchsurfing. Business is unlikely going to recover.

Of course he considered making chips and other components in the US, but he was few billions short to start the fab.

epistasis 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Good thing that the US cancelled collection of unemployment stats just as all these sorts of negative business effects were happening. If a job is lost in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?

JKCalhoun 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I stopped buying vintage cameras from Japan on eBay.

Well, there's always the next administration…

esalman 5 hours ago | parent [-]

I'm sure JD Vance administration will be more vintage-camera-friendly.

inferiorhuman 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Nah, I'm sure he's more focused on vintage furniture.

CursedSilicon 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Likes the creak of some old wood

mindslight 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Only the kind that are small enough to hide in public toilets.

Gibbon1 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Reminds me of a comment I think by Nancy Teeters the first female Federal Reserve board member. She said the other board members thought they could savage the US manufacturing industry to kill wage inflation and break the unions and it would come right back once they stopped. And it didn't.

inopinatus 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

From the other side of the Atlantic this sounds like straight Thatcherism, in which Chicago-school monetarism was an ideological anti-union weapon, and the Thatcher cabinet was not coy about it. However I think the US went that way first even if Reaganomics came later.

scrps 4 hours ago | parent [-]

I think a lot of that in the US got spun up with Nixon, Reagan brought a lot of it to the mainstream though. Both of them hated unions with a passion that is for sure.

johnebgd an hour ago | parent [-]

Unions are the best of all the bad solutions we’ve come up with so far for labor to compete with capital. The worst of course is collectivism through government, though that’s being tried again…

seg_lol 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Sociopaths. It breaks me to see the Fed use interest rates to cause unemployment as the lever against inflation. It all seems so cruel.

zahlman 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

They use interest rates to protect against inflationary (and deflationary) spirals, which are known to be devastating. The effect on the unemployment rate is a known, and predictable, side effect. But formal unemployment is small compared to labour force dropout anyway, and the latter is not necessarily so sensitive to economic conditions anyway. Besides which, the unemployment rate can't really keep going down forever.

Zoom out; recent levels are actually quite impressive in the USA. Yes, they've climbed since 2023, but they're only just reaching the pre-GFC minimum (https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-une...).

Zoom out further: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE/

Had it not been for COVID you'd be at more than 16 years without a(n NBER-determined) recession, long enough to suggest a fundamental shift vs. how things worked in the several decades before that.

ericd 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Have you ever read about people burning piles of German currency because it was better than using it to buy firewood with? Not to say we would get there, but allowing inflation to run is not kinder.

wqaatwt an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Inflation like that doesn’t just happen. It can only be the outcome of explicit government policy. Like in post WW1 Germany they wanted to wipe the value of all domestic government debt they accumulated during the war.

badc0ffee 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Have you ever tried to start a fire with a bunch of paper? It doesn't work great, and what a mess.

phil21 28 minutes ago | parent [-]

Done it plenty of times.

Works great until you run out of paper.

inferiorhuman 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I think these days folks typically use Zimbabwe or Argentina as examples.

AniseAbyss 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I am imagining Mexican cartels smuggling hardware into the US...

(But seriously I do not know how good US Customs is but in my country every day millions of packages from Asia arrive and they are checking not even a percent).

iancmceachern 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This kind of happens. There are all sorts of cases of counterfit ICs. Some even making it into military hardware

wildzzz 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Counterfeits don't happen when you buy parts from reputable distributors (digikey, mouser, Newark, TTI, arrow, etc) that are not "marketplace" items. These parts often come right from the manufacturer or from a domestic distributor for the manufacturer. You get counterfeits when you buy from brokers.

Often with older electronics designs, the parts the engineers originally picked are no longer made. It's not the end of the world, there are solutions. Sometimes the vendor changes the part number due to a process change or the part design is sold to another company and goes under a new number. You can also sometimes find drop in compatible parts (common for the 7400/5400 series chips), these may be in a different package so you might have to design an interposer or deadbug it. The worst option is finding old stock using a broker. There are legit brokers that will source old stock and "refurbish" them for you (called re-lifeing). But there are also shady brokers that will buy counterfeits (or get tricked into buying them) that may or may not actually work. Sometimes the counterfeits are relabeled parts that are compatible but the new label gets a higher price because they aren't being made any more. Sometimes the counterfeit is actually a totally different design that is shoehorned into its desired purpose (like a new microcontroller masquerading as an old processor or ASIC). Other times it's just some random junk pulled from e-waste that's been relabelled. Other times you'll get a counterfeit that comes from a stolen design. Even when the counterfeit functions, it may not perform to the same spec as the original part (very important for military spec parts) or will have other characteristics that make it incompatible with the rest of the design (like drawing too much or too little current). When it comes to engineering in ISO9001, traceability is a huge thing and brokers just can't provide that.

At my job, we have an "absolutely no brokers" rule. They simply cannot guarantee that what they provide is genuine. If a legitimate distributor doesn't have stock of a discontinued part, they'll never have stock of it. Brokers will tell you what you want to hear while they go out and try to make it happen. I'm not saying all brokers are shady but if you are considering buying from a broker, you should be instead considering how you can replace that part.

vachina 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Don’t buy your ICs from aliexpress.

inferiorhuman 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Well they're less perishable than avocados.

throw09803290 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[flagged]

hakfoo 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Why exactly is China an enemy? They want to increase their standard of living and expand their sphere of influence. That doesn't have to hurt the US directly. What it may undermine is the idea that the US gets to unilaterally steer the developed world.

On the other hand, perhaps that's a burden the US should be excited about tossing off. It's expensive to be the World Police, and it's left them with a lot of strained reputation and burnt-through leverage. It also requires them to do a lot of "lead by example" stuff that they seem completely disinterested in (industrial policy, forming consensus, trying to present as a magnanimous moral model).

cultofmetatron an hour ago | parent | next [-]

china is an enemy because they have a parallel financial institution that isn't controlled by the people who control the european/american financial hegemony and have enough military to stand up to te US uf war broke out.

jalapenos 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Your sarcasm detector failed

calvinmorrison 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

a purported niche/low-volume electronics, but the profit is somehow dependent on BOM price? a tariff bump on a small BOM doesn’t take you from profitable to homeless.

if that happened, the business already had seriously bad margins, bad cash flow, over-leverage, or maybe he was just doing it out of love getting paid maybe back for his time or not.

tariffs might’ve hurt, but they don’t collapse a healthy niche hardware company where buyers are presumably also into the niche.

seems weird i dont get it. can you explain further?

herdymerzbow 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

gamers nexus did a great (and very long) video on the impact of tariffs on US computer businesses. Some of the manufacturers went into quite a bit of detail breaking down their costs and how tariffs would render some products so unprofitable that they would cease to serve the US market. Not sure if it necessarily applies to a niche/low volume business, but the impacts on a larger business were eye opening:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1W_mSOS1Qts

tariffs have chopped and changed so much since this video that the specific tariff amounts mentioned are likely not accurate.

iancmceachern 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Hardware companies often operate on a relatively thin margin, especially as compared to say, software companies.

Let's say a companies margin was 40%. The cost of their constituent parts doubles due to tariffs, they are no longer making money as a result.

I hope this helps explain it for you.

WalterBright 3 hours ago | parent [-]

It's more complicated than that.

For example, the company can raise its prices. How well that works depends on whether there is competition for the company's product. If the competition is also hit by the tariffs, then they're on an even playing field. If the competition is using native parts, then the competitor gets the business.

iancmceachern 2 hours ago | parent [-]

This is one of the great misconceptions.

There are often no "native" alternatives.

Even the machines that make the chips are nearly all made in one country and then shipped around the world.

The amazing, modern nature of our modern world is built on the collective effort and knowledge of humankind globally.

Globally.

esalman 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Do you run a business with good margin, good cash flow, optimally leveraged and for profit? If yes, please tell us more about how tariffs have helped you.

WalterBright 3 hours ago | parent [-]

If you've been making the products locally, the tariffs on foreign products help you.

SturgeonsLaw 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Depends on your supply chain's exposure to foreign markets