| ▲ | kelnos an hour ago | |
This was exactly what I was thinking (though less eruditely) when I was reading the blog post. In this particular case, waiting for the ambulance led to a worse outcome, but I would not be surprised that, statistically, a you're better off waiting for the ambulance than trying to get to the hospital via other means. But unfortunately: > if the operator had information about the ETA of the ambulance (we don't know this!) then the correct answer would have been to tell them to not wait. But if the operator had no information, then the correct decision is to say to wait. I expect the operator just is not allowed to give advice like that, even if they did have information on ambulance ETA. There could be liability if someone is advised to drive to the hospital, and something bad happens. Even if that bad thing would have happened regardless. I think that's a bad reason to do the situation-dependent incorrect thing, but that's unfortunately how the world works sometimes. | ||
| ▲ | godelski an hour ago | parent [-] | |
I also want to say that I'm giving this advice as someone who loves math, data, and statistics. Someone who's taken and studied much more math than the average STEM major. It baffles me how people claim to be data oriented yet do not recognize how critical noise is. Noise is a literal measurement of uncertainty. We should strive to reduce noise, but its abolishment is quite literally impossible. It must be accounted for rather than ignored. So that's why I'm giving this advice. It's because it's how you strategize based on the data. All data needs to be interpreted, scrutinized, and questioned. And constantly, because we're not in a static world. So the only way to deal with that unavoidable noise is to have adaptable mechanisms that can deal with the details and nuances that get fuzzy when you do large aggregations. In the real world the tail of distributions are long and heavy. A rigid structure is brittle and weak. The strongest structures are flexible, even if they appear stiff for the most part. It doesn't matter if you're building a skyscraper, a bridge, a business, or an empire. This is a universal truth because we'll never be omniscient. As long as we're not omniscient there will is noise, and you have to deal with it | ||