It's like we're wired to trust what we're told over what we see.

The one doing the telling is the confident man on tv and the people around us.

What's funny is, 9 out of 10 people are totally credulous. They'll swallow any foolish thing as long as a authority says it. That last guy is a skeptic. BUT if everybody around him AND the authority are saying the thing, then he believes it. Because that's reasonable, right?

I think it is worth breaking into 2 situations.

The clear enemy authority figure. I.e. cop wants you to talk. Dont talk.

But then there is the if you do A you might die if you do B you also might die you have no probabilities, just your instinct plus what you are being told to do. And you have 10 seconds to decide.