Network effects says that is long-term immaterial; there just needs to be some event that breaks a self-reinforcing cycle.

The reason there is no linux version of Affinity is thus simple: Because there aren't enough linux users to warrant spending the relatively tiny cost it takes to do that. It won't cost much and it won't significantly change Affinity as a product to have a linux release. They just don't bother; not enough paying users.

And why aren't there enough linux users? Because Affinity, for one, doesn't run on it.

That is the self reinforcing cycle that so far kept Windows around as default choice.

But that cycle can be broken. If not through a sudden burst based on some serious hype, then perhaps simply with slow and steady change.

Or through emulation, but then the incentive is more to make the software work well in the emulator, rather than natively.

Then again, maybe we just need to wait longer for the market to catch up. Not many Steam games support Linux natively yet, even though Linux is a close second to Windows for how many games run on it through Proton. I guess developers figure that they don't need to do extra work when Valve will do it for them, but maybe that will change after a portion of the market has migrated to Linux, especially if Valve slows down on the compatibility work.

On the other hand, I migrated from macOS, and chose to stick to Gimp. Its interface is the worst I’ve seen, but with PhotoGIMP it’s tolerable. Now, when I’m used to it, I don’t care about Affinity or Photoshop to ever come to Linux. I want Gimp to consider rewriting their interface. And maybe to change this idiotic name nobody in the real world thinks is funny. Then it would be quite good product to promote.

Also, I use Pinta for simple tasks. And Krita for something bigger (or more drawing), but I wish it to be Wayland-ready.