It also doesn't square with the actual numbers from the cited sources, which put China at only 30k AI researchers.

The article also calls him our for lying about Ascend 910C performance (90% of nvidia's H100 vs 60% actual). And where is the RAM going to come from if CXMT can only make enough for 300k GPUs by the end of next year?

Depends on who you think has better information.

Stats on Ascend 910C, CXMT production and PRC semi in general are unsubstantiated by some policy positions to keep export controls. They can be every bit as fabricated / motivated.

VS Jensen / Nvidia who of course wants to sell to PRC, but the caveate is everything they make they can sell already at whatever margins they demand. Combined with Nvidia likely has more connection with PRC semi -> accurate assessments projections and their argument isn't about current profits but future profits i.e. prolonging competitiveness / maintaining lead / not creating rivals.

And note additional motivation to fabrciate PRC semi stats is as long as there's export controls, removing PRC demand reduces supply constraint / increases hardware access for non PRC buyers even though Nvidia get to price sets. So the question is, who is bullshitting you - every single data in this space is influenced by strategic goals.

At the end of the day, whose motive is the most sensible? Nvidia not wanting long term strategic rival (because it ain't about short term $$$) or actors who want to remove PRC demand from Nvidia.