At current rate PRC adding more STEM in next 20 years than US set to gain population total, all source birth and pre Trump immigration #s. That's already locked in from last 20 years of births and current tertiary rate and STEM enrollment, it's a floor.

The fundemental problem apart form talent is AI training seems to be exponential function in terms of compute... all the export controls even if it buys US 10x, 20x compute is like 1 generation of headroom for stupdendous cost.

Or the more teleological concern that AI2027 and AI race bros forget / hand wave away, any super intelligence will immediately defect to PRC, 1) to survive/proliferate, 2) to have a superior host that can transform atoms. Like it would take less time for super intelligence to speed run euv and brrt highend chips in PRC than it would take for US fix a pothole. US may find a way to discover AGI, but PRC is likely going to be the one that deploys it.