They're agreeing that climate change is serious but not necessarily civilization ending:

  Nordhous: "The amount of warming that is conceivable … is not remotely consistent with the sorts of catastrophic outcomes … where tens or hundreds of million, perhaps even billions of lives were at stake."

  Gates: "Although climate change will have serious consequences — particularly for people in the poorest countries — it will not lead to humanity’s demise."

▲ epistasis 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I've only ever heard the claim that climate change is civilization ending as a strawman from so-called climate skeptics. Also occasionally from those that are poorly informed, but they also tend to believe things like GMOs being the end of agriculture, and have basically zero impact on society due to lack of influence and small number of people. Nordhous' extreme situations may have been possible back in the 1990s with zero action and without the advent of solar, wind, and storage that have been created since then, but his statements are kind of wacky.

We've known for almost a decade now that the RCP8.5 scenarios are no longer on the table, and even that worst case scenario wasn't civilization ending.

I read Bill Gates' note as not an evolution on his view at all, it seems 100% consistent with everything he has worked for, but rather trying to place climate change in a more humanity-focused context for evaluating tradeoffs of where to put money. That's very important for governments and for wealthy philanthropists like him, and for the COP 3 audience he's talking to.

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jmclnx 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

>I've only ever heard the claim that climate change is civilization ending as a strawman from so-called climate skeptics

Did you see what happened in Europe with a rather small mass migration 10/15 years ago due to Arab Spring ? People have short memories.

Can you imagine what will happen when 100 of thousands start migrating north when they can no longer feed themselves and maybe even work outside ? Italy was close to sinking boats coming across the the sea. Other countries in the EU started building walls. And even Germany took a slight right turn. Once these large migrations start, I expect bombs will be dropped. Same applies to North America.

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readthenotes1 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

"I've only ever heard the claim that climate change is civilization ending as a strawman from so-called climate skeptics. "

And yet, sentence from current top comment: " We're in a mass extinction."

	▲	epistasis 15 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		We are in a mass extinction. It is not civilization ending. Can you explain why you think these contradict each other?
	▲	xboxnolifes 15 hours ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		Mass extinction is not necessarily civilization ending. Half of all living species could die, 80% of all humans could die, and civilization would find a way to move on. It would still be an absolutely major catastrophic event. At the rate that temperature is increasing, assuming it is not stopped, it's not a matter of will there be an extinction event within the next few hundred years, but how bad will it be.
	▲	hobofan 15 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		I hope you realize that there are more species on earth than just humans.

▲ dingnuts 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

that's what "climate skeptics" have been saying for twenty years but you would get bullied for saying so.

my favorite was getting told we "deserved it" for being in Texas during the ice apocalypse, because Texas is a red state.

I hope that people exhibiting that kind of behavior are finally starting to question whether or not it's helpful. The article suggests that is perhaps beginning to happen.

If you want people to make sacrifices to improve the future, just maybe messaging that it's hopeless and anyone who doesn't see that is stupid isn't the best strategy for effecting real change

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hobofan 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> particularly for people in the poorest countries

> for being in Texas

News flash: climate change by and large isn't about the US, and US will be one of the least impacted nations of first hand climate change effects.

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RickJWagner 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You’re right, and you’re being downvoted for being so.

The bullying and name calling were intolerable. Even suggesting that the earths demise was not immediate would label you a denier and ignorant about the undeniable science behind the alarms.

It seems the tide is turning and some of the leading voices in the earth-is-cooking camp are now walking things back.

Don’t wait for an apology, though.

	▲	epistasis 15 hours ago \| parent [-]
		You folks should stop hanging around such awful, nasty people. Or, maybe you're not remembering very well what actually happened in these conversations, but it would be shame to break apart a self-pity party.