Transistor size is not the only metric that matters in computer speed. Maybe you weren't around when 1MHz CPUs were considered fast. Then there were 8Mhz, then 16MHz, then 25MHz, and soon enough it was 250Mhz, then it jumped up to 1GHz, and now we're seeing 4GHz and faster. We're probably not at the end of the GHz that can be achieved. Chip dies got bigger, too. Way bigger. It doesn't matter if a single transistor can't be shrunk smaller than 3nm if the chip size can be increased. We've seen this in Cerebras Wafer Scale Engine (WSE), which is 12 inches by 12 inches and contains 4 trillion transistors. And then there's the possibility of 3D chip design - if you can't go wider, build taller - but the main problem with all of this is heat and power. More transistors, more GHz, larger dies, all means more heat - and heat is the real limiting factor. If heat and power weren't a concern then we'd have far faster computers.

But all of these advancements in processing power are driven by money, not by some made-up "law" that sounds nice on paper but has little to do with the real world. Sorry but "Moore's law" isn't really a "law" in any way like the laws of physics.

You’ve completely ignored my arguments, you’re hung up on one technicality, and now you’re just being derisive. I literally have a degree in computer engineering. I’m well aware there’s more than just semiconductor size. I’m aware of 3D chip fabs. I’m well aware of clock speed as a dimension. I’m also well fucking aware that moore’s law is not a physical law.

My whole fucking point is that neither are the AI scaling laws.

Please stop talking to me.