You're probably right about how disconnected the spending vs. revenue is, but I've also seen the entire USA's public debt go so high that it requires nearly $1 trillion per year just to service the interest payments [1]. That sounds ludicrous to me too, and yet somehow the economy is booming.

There are two important points by Keynes that are relevant:

1. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Even if you're betting on a crash, it will probably happen after you get margin called and lose all your money. You can be absolutely right about where this is headed, but keep your personal investments away from this.

2. The value of a company isn't determined by any sound fundamentals. It's determined by how much you can get a sucker to pay (aka Keynes' castles in the air theory). Until we run out of suckers OpenAI will be able to keep getting cash infusions to pay whoever actually demands cash instead of stock. And as long as there are suckers that are CEOs of big tech companies they are going to be getting really big cash infusions.

[1] https://www.pgpf.org/programs-and-projects/fiscal-policy/mon...

The logical conclusion is that we don't have an AI bubble. We have a USD flood. Or consequentially, fiat floods. You see stupid expected valuation of OpenAI et al. not because investors are stupid. It's because there is a stupid amount of USD and it has to go somewhere. You either get real estate bubble or AI bubble or whatever bubble.

Or, maybe you don’t understand why it’s rational?