I find it more likely that the entire "second" level of software companies are in OpenAI's cross hairs more so than Google. Salesforce, ServiceNow, Intuit, DocuSign, Adobe, Workday, Atlassian, and countless others are easier to pick off than Google.

Those don't seem like reasonable targets at all to me. OpenAI's product is information and their power is engagement. It's more like a cross between Facebook that thrives on engagement and Google that delivers information.

Googles biggest advancement in the last ~15 years is to produce worse search results so that you spend more time engaging with Google, and doing more searches, so that Google can show more ads. Facebook is similar in that they feed you tons of rage-bait, engagement spam, and things you don't like infused with nuggets of what you actually want to see about your friends / interests. Just like a slot machine the point is that you don't always get what you want, so there's a compulsion to use because MAYBE you will get lucky.

OpenAI's potential for mooning hinges on creating a fusion of information and engagement where they can sell some sort of advertisement or influence. The problem of course is that the information and engagement is pretty much coming in the most expensive form possible.

The idea that the LLM is going to erode actual products people find useful enough to pay for is unlikely to come true. In particular people are specifically paying for software because of it's deterministic behavior. The LLM is by its nature extremely nondeterministic. That's fully in the realm of social media, search engines, etc. If you want a repeatable and predictable result the LLM isn't really the go to product.

Not every kid born in the last five years will know Google as a verb as we do. They’ll be adults in 15 years, which is a paltry investment timeline for the type of Black Swan event we’re talking about, which AI is.

I don’t disagree with you entirely, but I’d argue the second level apps are harder to chase because they get so specialized.

Death of Google (as everyone knows Google today) is a tricky one. It seems impossible to believe at this exact moment. It can sit next to IBM in the long run, no shame at all, amazing run.