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mise_en_place 3 days ago

It doesn't freak me out and it's actually completely rational. If both OpenAI and AMZN expect real rates to keep rising while inflation spirals out of control, this deal makes a lot of sense for both of them. They're just duration hedging.

JumpCrisscross 3 days ago | parent [-]

> If both OpenAI and AMZN expect real rates to keep rising while inflation spirals out of control, this deal makes a lot of sense for both of them. They're just duration hedging

It can’t be the same hedge on both sides of the trade.

mise_en_place 3 days ago | parent [-]

Correct, oAI is short rates vol.

JumpCrisscross 3 days ago | parent [-]

> Correct, oAI is short rates vol

Why vol? They're just short rates, which is a silly way to say leveraged. If rates become volatile but halve, OpenAI does fine. If rates stabilise at 10%, OpenAI fails. There is no "duration hedging," which for OpenAI would involve buying duration, i.e. bets that profit when rates go up, going on.