A trillion dollar valuation for a company losing money does naturally lead to the belief "this is a bubble", that's not really what most call an "assumption" as evidence led to the belief.
May be incorrect, but it's not writing down the answer first and working backwards.
> But what if, maybe, it ain't so?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z70BKwfSUA
Comedic take from last time, but the point at the conclusion remains. "Just this once, we think we might".
> Of course, lots of AI things are going to fail, and nobody is exactly sure of the future. But what if, after in depth inspection, the overall thing is actually looking pretty good and OpenAI like a winner?
Much as I like what LLMs and VLMs can do, much as I think they can provide value to the tune of trillions of USD, I have no confidence that any of this would return to the shareholders. The big players are all in a Red Queen's race, moving as fast as they can just to stay at the same (relative) ranking for the SOTA models; at the same time, once those SOTA models are made, there are ways to compress them effectively with minimal losses of performance, and if you combine that with the current rate of phone hardware improvements it's plausible we'll get {state of the art for 2025} models running on-device sometime between 2027 and 2030, with no money going to any model provider.
