Imho the future (or present) of normie friendly distros is in atomic linux. Fedora Silverblue, Bazzite, Aurora, SteamOS. It seems to me that Ubuntu on desktop is traditional but quite behind. For normies its gonna be some Fedora based distro and they choose Gnome or KDE.

Fedora looks interesting I admit, but having used Gentoo for ~20 years and Debian for ~10 [1], Fedora feels like a new pair of uncomfortable shoes.

[1] And then one day you find / ten years have got behind you...