> If/when frontier model development speed slows down

You do not believe that this has already started? It seems to me that we’re well into a massive slowdown

It's hard for me to say. I don't think you know you're on the S-curve until after the fact.

On the one hand, most models are "good enough" for chatgpt-like usage, and there it's hard to see/feel generation-to-generation improvements. On the other hand, if you look at instruction following, dealing with long context windows, >200 tool call interactions while staying on track, there's still plenty of improvements to be had. So, hard to say where we are.

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enraged_camel 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Not the OP but I use AI all day every day and have noticed substantial improvements in the models over the past ~6 months. GPT-5 was a huge leap (contrary to reporting) and so was Sonnet 4.5.

	▲	barrell 3 days ago \| parent \| next [-]
		GPT5 was by no means a huge leap. I’d be willing to believe that you prefer it, or that you found it an improvement, despite both of those being wildly contrary to my experience (and most of the rhetoric online). But objectively speaking it was a small improvement, even going by OpenAI’s marketing claims. In practice, I upgraded everything to GPT-5 and the performance was so terrible I had to rollback the update.
	▲	embedding-shape 3 days ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		> GPT-5 was a huge leap (contrary to reporting) and Depends on what you compare it to. For us who were using o3/o1 Pro Mode before GPT-5, the new model isn't that huge of a leap, compared to whatever was before Pro Mode existed.