| ▲ | oskarkk 5 days ago | ||||||||||||||||
My logic is that past results don't indicate future results, and assuming that the growth rate from the last 5 years will stay the same for the next 10 years is a big "if". For new companies, new products, high growth rates over many years are normal, but we're talking about an established market that has already seen big growth rates over a long time (as the other commenter pointed out). Smartphone sales today are the same as in 2015, because there's an obvious ceiling to growth in that market, and it has been reached a long time ago. Number/power of solar installations is also a very different thing than revenue, because the growth in that market is caused by the rapidly falling prices (~10x in the last 15 years), so the installed power grows much faster than the cumulative cost of that power. As the computing power is still getting cheaper, and cloud usage is already high, with many competitors, I'd expect the revenue growth to slow down in the next 10 years. | |||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | JonathanBeuys 5 days ago | parent [-] | ||||||||||||||||
Is cloud usage really high? Look at all the stuff people do. Almost none of it is automated via software. Look at people on construcion sites, cashiers, cleaning stuff, cab drivers ... all of it is done manually. I am writing this manually, even though I would prefer to just say it while doing the dishes. But there is no good voice interface for browsers yet. And hey, why do I even do the dishes? I would say we haven't even started automating the world via software. 10 years of 30% growth just means we will spend 14x more on software in 10 years than we do now. Considering we have not even really started using software for automating work, I would be surprised if we stay below that. | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||