I think he is bearish about agentic workflows because he works at the very highest level of coding. An agentic Karpathy is a few doubling cycles beyond an agentic junior engineer. Agents (or just LLMs on a loop that correct their errors) are very reliable for less complex tasks now, and theyre still getting better at an exponential rate.

We are still on trend by projections to reach human parity in many domains by 2027-2028, the only thing that would prevent this is a major unexpected slowdown in AI progress.