Solar is like 10% of electric production, which is about 20% of energy use.

So if you expect solar to replace most of that, at steady state you probably need more panels per year than are currently being produced. No reason to expect diminishing production to increase costs vs today (they might rise vs the eventual floor).

I agree that we have an enormous calorie surplus that we can turn the knob on.

> which is about 20% of energy use

Electricity is about 3x more efficient than other power sources on most places they are used. So, in reality it's about 50% of the replacement needs. Or, in other words, we have to about double our electricity production to replace everything else.