METR kinda has been described as a Moore's Law for LLMs, but personally I think the financial environment around AI will break within 2 years — which still represents a huge increase in capabilities, but isn't a decade.

• Text and graphs: https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...

• Video interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=evSFeqTZdqs

That said, I've not seen work that looks promising to the problem of, as he phrased it: "They don’t have continual learning. You can’t just tell them something and they’ll remember it."

Saying any specific timeframe for that, 10 years or anything else, seems too certain. Some breakthrough might already exist and be unknown, but on the other hand it may require a fundamental advancement in mathematics in order to make it possible to find something at least close to optimal in a billion-dimensional (or whatever) vector space with only the first few dozen examples.