What does that tell you about AI in 100 years though? We could have another AI winter and then a breakthrough and maybe the same cycle a few times more and could still somehow get AGI at the end. I’m not saying it’s likely but you can’t predict the far future from current companies.

You're making the mistake of assuming the failure of the current companies would be seperated from the failures of AI as a technology.

If we continue the regime where OpenAI gets paid to buy GPUs and they fail, we'll have a funding winter regardless of AI's progress.

I think there is a strong bull case for consumer AI but it looks nothing like AGI, and we're increasingly pricing in AGI-like advancements.