How certain are you of this really? I'd take this bet with you.

You're saying that we won't achieve AGI in ~80 years, or roughly 2100, equivalent to the time since the end WW2.

To quote Shane Legg from 2009:

"It looks like we’re heading towards 10^20 FLOPS before 2030, even if things slow down a bit from 2020 onwards. That’s just plain nuts. Let me try to explain just how nuts: 10^20 is about the number of neurons in all human brains combined. It is also about the estimated number of grains of sand on all the beaches in the world. That’s a truly insane number of calculations in 1 second."

Are humans really so incompetent that we can't replicate what nature produced through evolutionary optimization with more compute than in EVERY human brain?

How does a neuron compare to a flop?