> I didn't say that MCP was too complex to take off - it clearly took off despite that complexity.

I did not say you said exactly that either. Read more carefully. I said you were discrediting them by implying they were too complex to take off due to resource and complexity constraints. It's clearly stated in the relevant section of your post (https://simonwillison.net/2025/Oct/16/claude-skills/#skills-...)

>I'm predicting skills will take off even more. If I'm wrong feel free to call me out in a few months time for making a bad prediction!

How the hell can you predict they will "take off even more" when the feature is accessible for barely 24 hours at this point? You don't even have a basic referent frame or at least a statistical usage sample for making such a statement. That's not a very reliable prediction, is it?

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simonw a day ago | parent | next [-]

> How the hell can you predict they will "take off even more" when the feature is accessible for barely 24 hours at this point?

That's what a prediction IS. If I waited until the feature had proven itself it wouldn't be much of a prediction.

The feature has also been live for more than 24 hours. I reverse-engineered it a week ago: https://simonwillison.net/2025/Oct/10/claude-skills/ - and it's been invisibly powering the PDF/DOC/XLS/PPT creation features on https://claude.ai/ since those launched on the 9th September: https://www.anthropic.com/news/create-files

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hansmayer a day ago | parent [-]

> That's what a prediction IS. If I waited until the feature had proven itself it wouldn't be much of a prediction.

No, that's merely guessing mate. Predictions are, at least in modern meaning, based on at least some data and some extrapolation model that more or less reliably predicts the development of your known dataset into future (uknown) values. I don't see you presenting either in your post, so that's not predicting, that's in the best of cases guessing, and in the worst of cases irresponsible distribution of Anthropic's propaganda.

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simonw 18 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think you and I are operating from different dictionaries. What you're describing is more what I'd call a hypothesis or maybe a forecast. I'm comfortable with my use of "prediction" to mean the same thing as a guess.

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hansmayer 14 hours ago | parent [-]

Well, if we do, those would be very different dictionaries indeed. Do you not know "forecast" is a synonym to "prediction" ? I was going to qualify this with a "practically", but then it turns out according to Mirriam-Webster, prediction is literally a synonym of "forecast". So explain again, what exactly is your "dictionary definition" for "prediction" again? Unless it's guessing, but then, anyone can then make "predictions" like that.

(If we stick to Mirriam-Webster again, here is what I found : to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data - i.e. - basically what I already told you a "prediction" is).

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simonw 13 hours ago | parent [-]

Is this perhaps some weird British vs American English thing I was unaware of?

Oxford Learners Dictionary (because the Oxford English Dictionary is behind a paywall): "a statement that says what you think will happen; the act of making such a statement" https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/us/definition/eng...

The current Wikipedia definition looks like a good fit for how I'm using the term here:

A prediction (Latin præ-, "before," and dictum, "something said"[1]) or forecast is a statement about a future event or about future data. Predictions are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge of forecasters. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference between "prediction" and "estimation"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction

	▲	hansmayer 11 hours ago \| parent [-]
		No, it's just a matter of not trying to make "guessing" equal to "predicting". In this day and age we should know better then to make wild guesses.

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okthrowman283 20 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Wrong

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a day ago | parent | prev [-]

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