| ▲ | mustaphah a day ago | |
This aligns with METR's Time Horizons [1], the current SOTA "Moore's Law" for AI agents: - The length of tasks AI can complete doubles every ~7 months - In 2-4 years, AIs could autonomously complete week-long projects. - In under 10 years, they might handle month-long software or knowledge work. [1] https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com... | ||
| ▲ | lm28469 a day ago | parent | next [-] | |
It's like saying your newborn will have the same mass as earth in 50 years if he continues on his first month weight gain trajectory. | ||
| ▲ | ben_w 19 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | |
METR measures tasks, not projects. No project I've worked on had individual tasks that were supposed to take longer than 2 weeks, the PM* broke them down to sub-tasks if they were any bigger. * At least, where we had a PM. The places I was self-directed could arguably provide an interesting comparison. | ||